9 Bold Fantasy Baseball Predictions for 2019
Max Scherzer Won't Finish as a Top-5 Starter
NFBC ADP: 6.14
Position Rank: 1
| Projections | IP | Wins | SO | K% | BB% | ERA | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 Season | 220.7 | 18 | 300 | 34.6 | 5.9 | 2.53 | 0.91 |
| THE BAT | 210.0 | 16 | 282 | -- | -- | 3.04 | 1.00 |
| Steamer | 208.0 | 17 | 271 | 32.1 | 6.4 | 3.14 | 0.96 |
| numberFire | 215.7 | 16 | 268 | -- | -- | 2.84 | 1.00 |
After a run of six straight dominant seasons, are the wheels ready to fall off for Max Scherzer?
Not exactly.
But some regression is likely to hit after last year's truly magical season, when the ace posted his best strikeout rate, his second-lowest walk rate, and second-lowest skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) of his career. So let's start to bake that in.
Then, there's some numbers that also stick out. Scherzer allowed 0.94 home runs per nine innings pitched (HR/9), which was his best mark since the 2014 season. His home-run-to-fly-ball rate (HR/FB%) was only 9.7%, and yet he allowed a 47.6% fly-ball rate overall, the second-highest mark of his career. Scherzer's HR/FB rate ranked 11th among the 56 qualified starters in 2018. In short, he was lucky not to give up a few more jacks, and a couple ill-timed homers can change things.
He also got a bit lucky with stranding runners. Scherzer's strand rate was a career-best 81.3%, nearly 10 percentage points (72.6%) above the average for MLB starters.
None of this means that Scherzer is about to turn in a horrible year. Not at all. But if he gives up a few more homers and allows a few more hits with runners on base, he may not live up to the price tag of SP1.
