Fantasy Baseball: 5 Hitters Due for Negative Home Run Regression in 2019

Javier Baez, 2B/SS, Chicago Cubs

2018 - Home Runs: 34 (15th), FB: 32.3%, HR/FB: 24.3%

Another candidate for NL MVP a season ago, Javier Baez produced a stellar campaign, thanks to a breakout season that saw him rip 34 long balls to supplement 21 steals, 101 runs and 111 RBI.

Still, there are some significant warning signs to be aware of with Baez. Like Yelich, he benefited greatly from a high HR/FB rate, and Baez's plate discipline has some serious risk with a minimal 4.5% walk rate but a 45.5% O-Swing %, which measures the percentage of swings a batter takes outside of the strike zone. That chase rate was the second-highest among all qualified hitters in baseball.

With Baez not waiting on good pitches often, opposing pitchers could look to exploit his aggressiveness. But that's not the only thing working against him. The versatile infielder has a HR/FB of 24.3% -- nearly double that of the MLB average.

Baez is a massive five-category producer, and he provides some solid batting average stability, but the home runs could come crashing down to earth a bit in 2019.