3 MLB FanDuel Studs to Target on 4/11/19

Jon Gray, P, Colorado Rockies

Price: $8,500

Calling Coors Field home, Jon Gray's viability as an option in daily fantasy doesn't always line up with how well he's pitching in the real world. Tonight, he's on the road against the San Francisco Giants, and we get to separate his play from his Coors Field results.

Despite what his ugly 5.12 ERA may lead you to believe, Gray actually seemed to be pitching about as well last year as he did when he posted a 3.67 ERA in 2017. His 3.68 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) was actually an improvement from 2017's 3.74, and his strikeout rate was up to 24.6% with a 7.0% walk rate. He did allow more hard-contact and more fly-balls last year, but a significant part of the ERA difference was a jump in home run-to-fly-ball rate, which went from 11.1% in 2017 to 18.1% in 2018. That stat is typically filled with variance and more of an indication of when a pitcher is getting unlucky than when they're pitching poorly. Considering his career-average of 14.3%, we can expect some regression this year.

His two 2019 starts have seen him allow a combined eight earned runs in 12 2/3 innings so far, but again, he seems to be showing some improvement. In that small sample, he's posted a stellar 3.07 SIERA with a 27.5% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate.

The Giants have struck out at an above-average rate (25.0%) to start the year, and their active roster tends to have a tough time with right-handed pitching -- with a wRC+ of 88 (fourth-worst in the Majors) in 2018.

Gray and the Rockies aren't huge favorites (-124 moneyline) tonight, but that's the kind of concessions you make on a slate that doesn't have a true stud pitcher above $10K. Gray's got some big strikeout upside and a reasonable floor here.