3 MLB FanDuel Studs to Target on 4/17/19

Carlos Carrasco, P, Cleveland Indians

Price: $9,600

The Seattle Mariners' offense is off to a hot start this season, but a matchup with Cleveland's Carlos Carrasco leaves them with the lowest implied total (3.57 runs) on Wednesday's main slate.

There are a couple favorites bigger than Cleveland (-130 moneyline), but only one pitcher draws an implied total against him nearly as low as Carrasco's, and that's Cole Hamels. Hamels hasn't hit a strikeout rate of at least 25.0% since 2006, though, while Carrasco has been north of 28.0% in each of the last three seasons, so it's easy to look past the potential safety from Hamels being a heavy favorite.

Carrasco has a 12.60 ERA through three games this year, but with his skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) sitting at 3.42, there's nothing to be worried about. His 5.5% walk rate is right in line with last year's, and his 30.9% strikeout rate is actually a step up from his 29.5% in 2018. His swinging-strike rate is down, so we could see that strikeout rate come down some, but it's finished north of 28% in three of the last four seasons (and not below 25% since 2013). Even some regression shouldn't send it down too far.

Our models project Carrasco for over 10 fantasy points more than any other pitcher on the slate, coming in large part from a projection of eight strikeouts in this one.