How Will the Top Rookie Pitchers From Last Season Perform in 2015?
Collin McHugh, Houston Astros
The Astros lefty posted a 2.73 ERA in 154.2 big league innings last year, which was the highest of his professional career. Notice I did not say Major League career. In seven years in the minors, McHugh’s lowest ERA came in 2009 with the Class A Brooklyn Cyclones of the Mets’ organization, when he posted a 2.76 ERA. He would get his yearly ERA under 3.00 just one other time in his minor league career, making last season’s big league success truly remarkable.
McHugh allowed a batting average on balls in play of just .259, but before you think his rookie season was simply a luck-driven fluke, keep in mind he posted an FIP- of 82 and xFIP- of 82. His 25.4% strikeout rate (9.14 per nine innings) was third among rookies, behind only deGrom and Tanaka, and went along with a 6.6% walk rate (2.39 per nine).
That’s the good news. The bad news is, given he did not exactly dominate the minors, the projection systems are not fully buying in.
| Player | IP | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | WAR/WARP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| numberFire | 175.1 | 3.91 | 8.8 | 2.8 | X |
| Steamer | 194 | 3.94 | 8.1 | 2.6 | 2.4 |
| ZiPS | 162.2 | 3.71 | 8.6 | 2.9 | 2.3 |
| PECOTA | 174 | 4.06 | 7.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 |
Regression is forecasted, which should make sense, given projections do not overreact to 152 strong innings. Still, all except PECTOA project McHugh to be an above average pitcher in his second season, so there is certainly reason for optimism.
McHugh also has a high swinging strike rate going for him, as 18.4% of his strikes were swinging strikes, which tied for 20th in the Majors, according to Baseball-Reference. This lends credence to the idea 2014 was not a fluke, as strike rates stabilize fairly quickly and Mike Podhorzer of FanGraphs notes swinging strike rate has a high correlation with future strikeouts.
