How Will the Top Rookie Pitchers From Last Season Perform in 2015?
Yordano Ventura, Kansas City Royals
The hard-throwing righty had a very solid debut season for the American League champions, posting a 3.20 ERA to complement to James Shields. With Shields now pitching for San Diego, the 23-year-old Ventura now be tasked with being the Royals’ ace.
While his strikeout rate of 20.3% and 7.82 strikeouts per nine innings was right around the Major League average, and his 8.8% (3.4 per nine) walk rate was below his average, his velocity alone is reason for optimism.
Ventura led the league in fastball velocity last season at 97 miles per hour, according to FanGraphs, and threw it 65.4% of the time (the 13th highest fastball frequency in the majors).
In terms of pitch type linear weights, his fastball was worth nearly five runs above average, and while his cutter was 1.4 runs above average, his other two pitches (a curveball and changeup) were below average, according to FanGraphs.
He did outperform his peripherals somewhat, posting an ERA- of 83, a FIP- of 94, and an xFIP- of 99, thanks in part to a .288 BABIP and 8.3% HR/FB rate. Here’s what the projections think.
| Player | IP | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | WAR/WARP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| numberFire | 192.2 | 3.84 | 6.6 | 3.6 | X |
| Steamer | 180 | 3.7 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 2.5 |
| ZiPS | 179.1 | 3.56 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 2.4 |
| PECOTA | 189 | 4.15 | 8 | 3.5 | 0.5 |
