5 Under-the-Radar Daily Fantasy Baseball Plays for 6/17/16
Lance McCullers, SP, Houston Astros
FanDuel Price: $8,700
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
Matt Harvey and Joe Ross will likely be the two most popular pitching options, while Julio Urias might draw some interest as a value play. Between those three, Lance McCullers will end up being overlooked, especially after disappointing in his last start.
Why You Should Use Him:
The average fan probably has no idea because of McCullers' 4.54 ERA on the year, but the right-hander has looked like one of the best pitchers in the league since returning from injury. In his last five starts, his ERA is down to 3.72 and his 3.24 xFIP indicates that he's been even better than that.
He's been a victim of some bad luck, with a bloated .388 BABIP. All of his peripherals point towards a very effective pitcher, though, so I feel safe chalking his 4.54 ERA up to bad luck and a small sample size.
McCullers' one struggle thus far has been an uncharacteristically high walk rate. After posting an 8.3 percent walk rate last season, McCullers' walk rate has ballooned to 14.9 percent this season. He has been able to limit the damage, though, by posting a ridiculous 30.3 percent strikeout rate over his last five starts.
His opponent tonight, the Reds, rank 26th in wOBA against righties this season, and their 23 percent strikeout rate is seventh in the league. When you combine that with McCullers' recent punchout ability, you get some serious upside. What's also encouraging about this matchup is that Cincinnati has the fifth-lowest walk rate against right-handed pitchers and the fourth-highest swing rate, so McCullers should be able to limit the free passes tonight.
The way that Cincinnati has been hitting recently -- specifically Jay Bruce, Adam Duvall, and Joey Votto -- is enough to make McCullers more of a tournament play than a cash game consideration, but Vegas sees this game going well for the righty, projecting Cincy for just 3.6 runs. His combination of low ownership and upside at this price is unmatched on today's slate, making him an excellent tournament option.
