Burning Questions: Who Will Make the Playoffs and Win the World Series?
The numberFire baseball staff will be - and has been - posting a weekly feature called Burning Questions. The idea is simple: we pose a general question to the numberFire baseball staff, getting contributors to provide an answer and an explanation on the particular subject.
This gives you, the reader, a chance to hear opinions from many different experts, who, believe it or not, don't always agree on everything. What we do have in common is a knowledge of and love for the game, and we want you to be a part of the conversation. Feel free to pose an answer to this or a future Burning Question on Twitter, or tell us why you agree or disagree with one or more of our answers. These features are designed to start the conversation, not to offer a comprehensive solution, and often there is not a clear correct answer.
This week, our writers were asked one of the most important questions of the offseason: Which teams will make the playoffs and win the World Series?
Dan Weigel's Picks
AL West: Oakland Athletics
AL Central: Detroit Tigers
AL East: Tampa Bay Rays
AL Wildcard: Boston Red Sox
AL Wildcard: Texas Rangers
NL West: LA Dodgers
NL Central: St. Louis Cardinals
NL East: Washington Nationals
NL Wildcard: Atlanta Braves
NL Wildcard: Pittsburg Pirates
World Series: St. Louis Cardinals over Detroit Tigers
I discuss and defend my choice of the Tampa Bay Rays at length in my Rays season preview, but in short, this is a team with elite pitching, elite defense, and underrated hitting. They will contend, and don't be surprised to see them relegate Boston to a wildcard spot.
Despite their offseason, the Tigers remain clear favorites in the AL Central. Drew Smyly should have a smooth transition back to the rotation and the offense remains elite even with the loss of Fielder. The AL West was the toughest AL division to pick, but I am sticking with the A’s over the Rangers and Angels despite the loss of Jarrod Parker to Tommy John surgery and Bartolo Colon to free agency. Sonny Gray will have to step up, but the pieces are there for them to emerge in a division littered with starting pitching question marks. The Angels, Royals and Yankees are the next most likely AL wildcard teams.
The addition of Doug Fister to Washington’s vaunted rotation coupled with injuries to Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy make the Nationals an easier choice in the NL East. They will bounce back this year from a disappointing 86-win campaign. The Cardinals will face stiff competition from the Pirates and Reds, but their collection of young talent is extremely impressive and should carry them to an elite season. The Dodgers are the easiest NL Pick and simply have more talent than any other NL West team. The Reds are the next most likely NL wildcard team.
Elite starting pitching tends to carry teams in the playoffs, and the Tigers have plenty of it. A front three of Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and Anibal Sanchez would be a nightmare for any opposing team and I expect the trio to carry the Tigers to the World Series, where they will fall to the Cardinals. Especially considering the impending promotion of top prospect Oscar Tavares, the Cardinals boast both a top-notch offense and pitching staff with young and elite talent. Defense is an issue, but I believe the Cardinals have the talent to overcome this weakness and take home a World Series Championship in 2014.
Chris Kay's Picks
AL West: Texas Rangers
AL Central: Detroit Tigers
AL East: New York Yankees
AL Wildcard: LA Angels
AL Wildcard: Oakland A's
NL West: LA Dodgers
NL Central: St. Louis Cardinals
NL East: Washington Nationals
NL Wildcard: Atlanta Braves
NL Wildcard: Cincinnati Reds
World Series: Detroit Tigers over LA Dodgers
The New look Yankees will take the AL East crown because of their offseason additions. With great years from Brian McCann, Jacoby Ellsbury and Masahiro Tanaka, I see them overtaking the Red Sox in the division. In the AL Central, it's a cakewalk for Detroit even though they’re starting to look banged up and thin. Kansas City is one year away from being serious contenders and the Indians come back to reality. Out west, the Angels nip at Texas’ heals in September, but can’t overtake the Rangers to win the division.
My National League standings are very basic. If the Braves hadn’t lost Medlen and Beachy for the season, I would be tempted to have them over the Nationals, but that’s not the case. The Braves have enough talent to be a wildcard team and I think they do that this year. Pittsburgh makes it two straight seasons over .500, but St. Louis is just too good. Arizona, Colorado, and San Diego all improve on their 2013 season, but the Dodgers are too much in the West as well.
Picking Detroit to win the World Series wouldn’t look so homer if this was posted two weeks ago, but I really do believe the Tigers can finally win the World Series. One of the big reasons why is because I have a hunch that the Tigers sign Stephen Drew after Opening Day. They’ll have to dish out a lot of money for one year, but they get a better hitter than Jose Iglesias and a great glove.
Iglesias isn’t the only Tiger out for the year though. The Bruce Rondon injury hurts the bullpen, but it allows Dave Dombrowski to make his typical midseason trade to help bolster the team. This extra piece to the puzzle gives the Tigers that final part they need to beat the Dodgers in the World Series. After the Tigers win the World Series, Little Caesar’s Pizza slashes prices and starts selling $2 pizzas.
Jim Sannes' Picks
AL West: Oakland Athletics
AL Central: Detroit Tigers
AL East: Boston Red Sox
AL Wildcard: Tampa Bay Rays
AL Wildcard: Kansas City Royals
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers
NL Central: St. Louis Cardinals
NL East: Washington Nationals
NL Wildcard: Pittsburgh Pirates
NL Wildcard: San Francisco Giants
World Series: Detroit Tigers over Washington Nationals
Over the last two years, there has been an kryptonite for the Detroit Tigers that they just couldn't buck: teams that put the ball in play would murder them. If you look back at 2012, Detroit was 18-18 against the Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Indians, teams that lost a combined 190 games that year. What did those two teams do well? They finished with the second- and third-lowest strikeout percentages in the league. Who was fourth? The San Francisco Giants, who swept the Tigers in the World Series.
Now, though, the Tigers will no longer have both Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera in the field at the same time. The result? Man, it's Kool and the Gang for the Tigers pitching staff. If they can overcome the injuries they've sustained thus far, MoTown's going to get funky, y'all.
The hardest decision for me in the American League was not putting the Yankees in. It's hard not to like a lot of the moves they've made this year, but that division is stacked. Right now, I have more faith in the pitching depth of the Red Sox and the Rays than the Yankees, so they don't quite make the cut.
With Kansas City, it was more that I didn't want to miss the boat on this team that is stacked fat with young goodies. I picked them as my surprise team in an earlier edition of Burning Questions because of their offensive firepower. Their pitching still worries me, but this team is moving in the right direction. The only question is whether 2014 is the season they take the next step or if that's next year.
In the National League, I think the Nationals became the favorite to take the pennant the second they acquired Doug Fister from the Tigers. How do you match up with that rotation in the playoffs? When you add on the fact that the Braves placed a majority of their pitching staff/half the city of Atlanta on the DL this weekend, the path to the post-season just got a whole lot easier.
The two wildcard spots seem to be completely up for grabs. If the Braves can somehow keep it together, it'll be a testament to how great that organization is. I just don't see it happening. And while the Giants had a brutal 2013, numberFire's Power Rankings give them a 36.1 percent chance at reaching the playoffs. It's hard to say no to a team with both Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner.
Bradley Wilson's Picks
AL West: Texas Ranger
AL Central: Detroit Tigers
AL East: Tampa Bay Rays
AL Wildcard: Boston Red Sox
AL Wildcard: Oakland Athletics
NL West: LA Dodgers
NL Central: St. Louis Cardinals
NL East: Washington Nationals
NL Wildcard: San Francisco Giants
NL Wildcard: Cincinnati Reds
World Series: LA Dodgers over Tampa Bay Rays
I just freaking love the Rays. They have young pitching out the ears, their roster is supremely flexible, they manage defense better than every other team in the majors, they leverage their talent with the best of them and their offense is underrated because of their pitcher-friendly home park. The Tigers are a little like Ike in Super Smash Bros Brawl; they're kind of slow and one-dimensional, but it doesn't matter because their pitching is so good. (That metaphor broke down a little, but whatever). This year's Tigers lineup will be faster and more balanced than last year's collection of plodding, defensively limited sluggers. With the injury to Jarrod Parker balancing out the injury to Derek Holland, I think Oakland slips behind Texas in the AL West by the slimmest of margins. Texas has majorly improved their offense, and they have the only true ace in the division in Yu Darvish, though you could argue for Felix Hernandez.
However, I do think Oakland's depth and intelligence will lead them to the playoffs; it helps that they're among the best teams at improving themselves midseason, while their division rivals in Anaheim are crippled by a bloated payroll and a barren farm system in that regard. Since the five good teams in the East will be beating up on each other all season, I'm severely tempted to leave them out of the wildcard spots altogether. But Boston is so much better than the rest of the (non-East) wildcard field that I can't get that fancy in good conscience.
However, food for thought: Kansas City was a fairly convincing 86-win team last year, with an even better run differential. They've only improved, calling up phenomenal rookie pitcher Yordano Ventura and filling some massive holes in the infield, The Yankees are good, but they don't have the talent to get away with their longstanding franchise traditions of hero worship and having a terrible bench anymore. The Orioles and Blue Jays don't have enough pitching to overcome Oakland's superior depth or Kansas City's 38 games against the Twins and White Sox.
I think the division champs in the NL are very straightforward. Another year of development for Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg, the acquisition of Doug Fister, and the starting pitching armageddon (to go with the loss of Brian McCann) in Atlanta have basically cinched the East - baseball's weakest division by far - to the Nationals.
In the Central, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh have only gotten worse while the Cardinals have only improved; their young pitchers will continue to develop and they've added a real shortstop in Jhonny Peralta. The mega-rich Dodgers swam away with the West last year and seem poised to do it again this year, especially after an injury to the D-backs top starter Patrick Corbin.
The wildcards, though, are interesting. With catastrophic pitching injuries on nearly practically every competing team, I think the underrated San Francisco Giants have a real shot at breaking in. Their offensive core - Pablo Sandoval, Hunter Pence, Brandon Belt and the elite Buster Posey - is severely underrated because of their impossible home park. Their weakness last year was actually in the rotation, and Tim Hudson replacing Barry Zito will go a long way to patching that. Among the severely weakened remainder of the field, I think Cincinnati has the best shot - at least their rotation is intact.
As far as the world series goes, I have a hunch that the Dodgers will finally have the resources to overwhelm the competition this year. A lot of that hunch comes from the fact that their bullpen is just ridiculous, which helps them a lot in close games (which matters extra in a short series). So I'm betting this is the year we'll finally learn if Dodgers fans can stay past the seventh inning in a world series clincher.
Daniel Lindsey's Picks
AL West: LA Angels
AL Central: Detroit Tigers
AL East: Tampa Bay Rays
AL Wildcard: Boston Red Sox
AL Wildcard: Cleveland Indians
NL West: LA Dodgers
NL Central: St. Louis Cardinals
NL East: Atlanta Braves
NL Wildcard: Washington Nationals
NL Wildcard: New York Mets
World Series: LA Dodgers over Boston Red Sox
The second wildcard spot has added a lot of intrigue to playoff races over the past two seasons, and I expect that to happen again especially in the American League. The AL West saw all but Houston make some sort of improvement, and because of signing Robinson Cano, the Mariners could be a surprise team. I don't think they gain a wildcard spot this year, no, but they will definitely be in the mix.
All division races will have at least two teams in it until the end, making for some great baseball in September. The Tigers' trio of pitchers will keep them ahead of Cleveland, but the Indians will find a way to sneak in the playoffs. Boston has a target on their back, and their youth might be the cause for some bumps in the road when the dog days of summer hit, allowing the Rays to sneak ahead for the division title. The Yankees used to be able to buy a championship, but they won't even be able to purchase a wildcard ticket this year.
In the NL, I think the Braves bats will keep the team afloat despite injuries to Medlen and Beachy. Mike Minor is ready to be an ace and while young, Julio Teheran should do enough to keep the team in games. The Nationals do look stronger on the mound, but if Atlanta can get consistency out of their bats, they will be hard to stop. The Central should beat up on each other, but it won't be a surprise when the Cardinals are on top at the end of the season. But due to the Reds and Pirates losing a couple key guys from last year, and the fact that no one besides the Dodgers in the NL West likes to finish above .500, I think the two wildcard spots will come from the East.
If the Braves win the division with their bats, the Dodgers should have no problem winning the NL pennant with theirs. The Tigers are going to be a trendy pick for the AL, but with their backs against the wall I see the Red Sox making it back to the big stage. Not having home-field advantage will hurt them though, allowing the best pitcher in the game to finally grab a World Series title.
