DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Monday 4/2/18
Every day is unique for daily fantasy baseball, which is both a blessing and a challenge. Although we can’t simply plug and play our favorite studs day in and day out, each slate presents us with a chance for a new gem to vault us up the leaderboards.
Through the use of numberFire’s tools, we can better identify the players primed to succeed each day, making the process of filling out a lineup just that much easier. In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy looking team to put up some big point totals.
Which names stand out for today on DraftKings? Let’s check it out, starting with the pitchers.
Pitchers to Target
High-Priced Pitchers
Charlie Morton ($11,000 on DraftKings): There is a lot to like about Charlie Morton tonight. His 2017 numbers are among the best on the slate -- he leads the slate with a 4.46 fielding independent pitching (FIP) and 3.70 skill-interactive earned run average (SIERA), and his 26.4% strikeout rate ranks second. Although it is early in the season, the Baltimore Orioles have been terrible offensively as their team batting average is .117, the worst in the Majors so far. Furthermore, their 27.8% strikeout rate is sixth-highest.
Mike Clevinger ($10,400): Mike Clevenger is essentially a riskier Morton tonight. He had a similar strikeout rate of 27.3% in 2017, which leads the slate, and has the second-best FIP and SIERA on the slate. However, he had a 12.0% walk rate and 34.2% hard-contact rate last year, which makes things a bit riskier. He still has elite strikeout upside despite facing a Los Angeles Angels team that has the second-best strikeout rate in the early part of 2018.
Low-Priced Pitchers
Sean Newcomb ($7,600): Sean Newcomb is a sneaky-upside play with his strikeout ability. He had a 23.7% strikeout rate in 2017, which is third-best on the slate after the two aforementioned pitchers, and limited opponents to just a 27.0% hard-contact rate. He did have walk issues last season with a 12.5% walk rate, the worst on the slate. If he can keep his control problems to a minimum, he has appealing upside even against a good Washington Nationals team.
Hitters to Target
High-Priced Hitters
Carlos Correa ($4,900): Carlos Correa has come out of the gate on fire with a .550 weighted on base average (wOBA) and a .375 isolated power (ISO). He's hit a home run, stolen a base, and reached base at least once in all four games to start the season. Tonight he's facing Chris Tillman, a pitcher who's 2017 numbers -- a 37.7% hard-contact rate, 89.6 average miles per hour exit velocity, 5.76 SIERA and 2.32 home runs per nine innings -- are exactly what we want to target.
Freddie Freeman ($4,700): Freddie Freeman absolutely smashed right-handed pitching last season despite being limited to just 117 games. He hit righties to the tun of a .422 wOBA and .293 ISO, power numbers that are definitely worth paying up for tonight. The Atlanta Braves are home to Tanner Roark and the Nationals this evening. This certainly isn't the easiest matchup for Freeman -- Roark was solid last year -- but the numbers he puts up against righties put him in play anyway.
Khris Davis ($4,600): Big Sexy Bartolo Colon is still in the bigs at age 44, but it's hard to see why because he was terrible last season. He had an abysmal 6.48 earned run average (ERA) and his 13.7% strikeout rate is the second-worst clip on the slate. Khris Davis has actually hit right-handed pitchers better than southpaws in his career, and 2017 was no different as he put up a solid .369 wOBA and .293 ISO against righties. He also hit an incredible 36 of his 43 home runs against right-handed pitching last year.
Value Hitters
Avisail Garcia ($3,800): The Chicago White Sox were solid against left-handed pitchers last season, finishing in the top 10 in both wOBA and slugging percentage (SLG) in the split. They continued that trend by crushing lefty Danny Duffy on Opening Day. The White Sox take on Jaime Garcia, who is -- you guessed it -- a southpaw. In 2017, Avisail Garcia lead the White Sox with a .434 wOBA against left-handed pitching and also had a respectable .152 ISO in the split. He is in a favorable hitting park tonight in Toronto and should be able to do well against a lefty.
Adrian Beltre ($3,500): I don't know if it is because he is old, but Adrian Beltre has been under-priced all season. The Texas Rangers are in Oakland and are going to face Andrew Triggs. Oakland isn't an ideal hitting environment, but Beltre has had plenty of success against right-handed pitching. In 2017, he put up a .383 wOBA and a .212 ISO with just a 14.4% strikeout rate versus righties. At this price, Beltre is easy to like any time he's in a good matchup.
Lewis Brinson ($3,200): Lewis Brinson is an interesting prospect and was included in the trade that sent Christian Yelich to the Milwaukee Brewers. He has a solid mix of both power and speed as evident by his 13 home runs and 11 stolen bases in 340 plate appearances for the Brewers Triple-A team last year. Brinson also had a respectable 9.4% walk rate, 18.2% strikeout rate and a .400 on base percentage in that time. The Miami Marlins are going to face Brian Johnson, who struggled with a 35.9% hard-hit rate and 45.7% fly-ball rate last year.
