MLB

3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 7/6/18

Jordan Sharp  —  @TehSharp Jul 6th, 2018
Nick Pivetta struggled in his most recent start with the Philadelphia Phillies, and his prop total for strikeouts on Friday is just 4.5 as a result. Should we expect the young righty to hit the over on that mark?

Prop betting odds can be useful in daily fantasy sports to help gauge the potential performance of a player on any given night in the MLB. Likewise, the same principles can be applied in the opposite direction -- by using our fantasy projections and models to help make more informed prop bets.

Using the odds available at Bovada Sportsbook, here are three prop bets available tonight that are good plays based on our daily MLB game projections.

Please note that Vegas lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates

Nick Pivetta OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-140)

Nick Pivetta is averaging 10.78 strikeouts per 9 innings and sporting a 28.1% strikeout rate as a starter this season. After a pair of appearances out of the bullpen, Pivetta is back on the mound in the battle for Pennsylvania tonight.

Pivetta does have some heavy chalk on his odds for the over from Bovada, but it's for good reason. Our models are projecting him for 6.03 strikeouts against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers

Freddy Peralta OVER 6 Strikeouts (-130)

Freddy Peralta has been a beast in his five Major League starts this season, and our models believe that will continue on Friday against the Atlanta Braves.

Even though Atlanta does not strike out much, Peralta owns a 37.7% strikeout rate this season, and in his lone home start so far this year, the right-hander racked up 10 punch-outs over 7 scoreless innings. Tonight, our models project Peralta for 7.05 strikeouts.

New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays

Aaron Judge OVER 2.5 Runs, Hits, and RBI (-130)

A Friday night matchup in Rodgers Centre awaits Aaron Judge and the New York Yankees, and on the main slate of games, the Yankees' outfielder is one of our highest-rated fantasy hitters.

That makes him an above-average prop selection, too, especially with only -130 odds on the over. The Yankees are up against Sam Gaviglio, who has allowed a .517 slugging percentage and .360 wOBA to right-handed batters in his career as a starter. Combine that with Judge's .426 wOBA and .312 isolated power versus right-handed pitching, and our models project Judge for 3.43 runs, hits, and RBI.