DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Monday 4/22/19
Every day is unique for daily fantasy baseball, which is both a blessing and a challenge. Although we can’t simply plug and play our favorite studs day in and day out, each slate presents us with a chance for a new gem to vault us up the leaderboards.
Through the use of numberFire’s tools, we can better identify the players primed to succeed each day, making the process of filling out a lineup just that much easier. In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy looking team to put up some big point totals.
Which names stand out for today on the DraftKings main slate? Let’s check it out, starting with the pitchers.
Pitchers to Target
High-Priced Pitcher
Chris Sale ($8,600 on DraftKings): Look, Chris Sale's numbers have been terrible this season, but you shouldn't be ready to give up on him just yet. Plus, with pricing so congested tonight, along with Sale's premium matchup, we are definitely willing to go down this road one more time. The Detroit Tigers have a 25.6 strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season, which is the 12th-most in the Majors, and their .256 team weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the worst in all of baseball against southpaws. This gives me some optimism for Sale tonight, considering his 38.4 percent strikeout rate from 2018 is easily the best on the slate. Note that there is a bit of a weather risk here, so be sure to check on it later in the day.
Joe Musgrove ($8,100): Joe Musgrove has been dominant this season, even though it has only been through three full starts. He has gone at least 6.1 innings in each and managed to do so in under 90 pitches in two of those starts. However, in his most recent 70inning outing, he threw 104 pitches, so it is not like he was being held back. With at least six strikeouts in each, in addition to an elite 0.81 ERA and 0.76 WHIP, there are reasons for optimism. His matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks is relatively neutral tonight, but the price seems cheap relative to the other pitchers on the slate.
Low-Priced Pitcher
Yonny Chirinos ($7,400): He has been used as both a reliever and an opener, as well as an outright starter. Tonight, Yonny Chirinos will be the Tampa Bay Rays' starter as they host the Kansas City Royals. Chirinos has put up a solid 27.1 percent strikeout rate with an elite 5.7 percent walk rate in 2019 and seems to be embracing the versatile role nicely. His relief roles tend to be longer in length than your typical 1-2 inning, so the routines are probably similar to that of a starter to a certain extent. He is a nice way to differentiate your lineups tonight.
Hitters to Target
High-Priced Hitters
Anthony Rendon ($5,800): Anthony Rendon is a lefty-mashed, and that has very much continued this season. Throughout his career, he has put up a .381 wOBA and a .209 isolated power (ISO) against southpaws, and tonight he gets to take this to Coors Field to take on Colorado Rockies left-hander Tyler Anderson. While the power isn't too great for Rendon, he's a 20-25 home run hitter, which is amplified in the best hitting environment in baseball. Anderson's 24.0 percent line-drive rate can get him into plenty of trouble against a hitter like Rendon, who has hit for a .300 AVG or better in each of the last two seasons and is hitting .371 in the early part of 2019.
David Dahl ($5,000): On the other side of the Coors Field matchup, David Dahl will take on Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Jeremy Hellickson. While the peripherals for Hellickson are kind of mediocre across the board, with nothing standing out too much one way or another, his 4.33 SIERA is among the worst on the slate and his 12.4 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate isn't great. Though his 33.0 percent fly-ball rate is solid. Dahl has smashed right-handed pitching so we're banking on his skill level tonight as he hit for a .378 wOBA and .281 ISO in 2018 and continued that dominance into 2019 with a .427 wOBA and .263 ISO.
Yoan Moncada ($4,900): Yoan Moncada is certainly producing much better than his last two seasons. While his strikeout rate is down to 25.3 percent, that still isn't very good. In addition, his walk rate has dipped to just 5.7 percent and his batting average has sky rocketed to .317 compared to a .241 career AVG. His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) has always been high, with a .345 career mark, but his .370 BABIP this season is inflating a lot of numbers. Luckily, a matchup against Baltimore Orioles right-hander David Hess should not slow him down, as he gave up an abysmal 46.5 percent fly-ball rate and a 14.2 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate in 2018.
Value Hitters
Josh Bell ($4,100): As a switch-hitter, Josh Bell has had better numbers against right-handed pitchers compared to left-handed pitchers. But this season, he has taken it to a whole other level. Bell is smashing righties to the tune of a .414 wOBA and .333 ISO. Tonight, he's going to take on Arizona Diamondbacks righty Zack Godley, a pitcher that really struggled with walks last season. His 10.2 percent walk rate is the second-worst on the slate, and given that Bell has a very good 12.1 percent career walk rate, I am confident in him getting the job done in one way or another tonight.
Matt Chapman ($3,900): Mike Minor has been incredible this season, but in 2018 he was not good at all. He had a 4.53 xFIP along with a 44.9 percent fly-ball rate, a 37.9 percent hard-hit rate and a 12.1 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate. Those a numbers that could get him into trouble against an Oakland Athletics team that has crushed lefties this season. They have an 8th ranked team wOBA with a .353 rate and a .231 team ISO which ranks 4th. Matt Chapman alone has a modest .366 wOBA but an insane .417 ISO against southpaws.
Brandon Nimmo ($3,700): I think Brandon Nimmo's cheap price is as much of a testament to how well Jake Arrieta has pitched as it is to how poorly Nimmo has been. In 2018, Nimmo smashed right-handed pitching, though, so I am banking on that and for him to turn things around soon. Last season, Nimmo hit for an elite .407 wOBA and .246 ISO while this season those numbers are way down to a .283 wOBA and .167 ISO. Arrieta had a poor 4.29 SIERA in 2018 as well, so we could see his numbers start to come up a bit as well.
Ryan Sheppard is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ryan Sheppard also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username donkshow_. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
