Burning Questions: Who Are the 2014 AL Midseason Award Winners?
The numberFire baseball staff has been and will be posting a recurring feature entitled Burning Questions. The idea is simple: we pose a general question to the numberFire baseball staff, getting contributors to provide an answer and an explanation on the particular subject.
This gives you, the reader, a chance to hear opinions from many different experts, who, believe it or not, don't always agree on everything. What we do have in common is a knowledge of and love for the game, and we want you to be a part of the conversation. Feel free to pose an answer to this or a future Burning Question on Twitter, or tell us why you agree or disagree with one or more of our answers. These features are designed to start the conversation, not to offer a comprehensive solution, and often there is not a clear correct answer.
Additionally, we will be happy to consider any Burning Questions that our readers might have. Tell us what you want to know and we will offer our opinions.
And now, our answers to the latest burning question: Who are your American League midseason award winners?
John Stolnis' Thoughts:
MVP: Mike Trout
Cy Young: Felix Hernandez
Rookie: Jose Abreu
This is the year, right? I mean, Miguel Cabrera and his fancy Triple Crowns are nowhere to be found in 2014, so it's finally time for Mike Trout to get his AL MVP. His nERD of 4.86 is second in baseball, and his fWAR of 5.5 is first. What's cool is that, in addition to being perhaps the best pure athlete in the game, with a terrific eye, hit tool and glove, he's also decided to add 70 power to his arsenal this year. His isolated power is fourth in baseball (.292), and he has one of the season's longest home runs, traveled 489 feet. Yowza.
This picks aren't terribly creative, but the numbers say King Felix is once again the most dominant pitcher in the American League. His 2.56 nERD is second among Major League pitchers (Tampa's David Price is first) and his fWAR of 5.1 is just 0.9 lower than his total for all of last year. The most impressive numbers for Felix are his strikeouts per nine innings (K/9 of 9.57) and walks per nine (BB/9 of 1.52) both of which are career bests. There is simply no area of his game in which he is not spectacular.
In any other year, New York's Masahiro Tanaka would be the runaway choice for Rookie of the Year, but it's a big year for international prospects, and Jose Abreu's fantastic rookie slugging season has him on pace to come close to Mark McGwire's rookie home run record of 49, set in 1987. My favorite number is his ISO of .338, which is tops in all of baseball, as is his slugging percentage (.619). He hasn't been just the best rookie slugger this year, he's been the best slugger, period.
A.J. Weinberg's Thoughts:
MVP: Mike Trout
Cy Young: Felix Hernandez
Rookie: Jose Abreu
In the AL, Trout and Hernandez were pretty obvious picks for the Most Valuable Player Award and Cy Young Award, respectively. Trout has a whopping 5.5 fWAR, 0.6 higher than anyone else in the league, and he grades out strongly in numberFire’s nERD metric as well. His nERD score of 4.86 trails only Troy Tulowitzki, but bests anyone else in the AL by nearly 1.0 full runs per game. That’s a staggering difference, and goes to show just how absurd Trout’s 2014 production has been. Hernandez is similarly dominant in fWAR and nERD relative to other starting pitchers. Interestingly enough, however, he falls just barely behind David Price in nERD. Still, his ERA, FIP, and xFIP are all better than Price’s, making him my choice by a comfortable amount over every other pitcher in the AL.
The Rookie of the Year Award came down to the two obvious candidates: Abreu and Tanaka. Abreu is 18th overall in nERD while Tanaka falls outside the top 30. Tanaka is an impressive ninth overall in nERD relative to other pitchers, but I have to give the edge to the player who is in the lineup everyday. There were concerns about how well Abreu would perform in the bigs, but he's already one of the top power hitters in the entire league and has shown no signs of slowing down. He trails Nelson Cruz by only one home run, but has 38 fewer at-bats. His transition to the highest level has been outstanding, and accumulating 2.7 fWAR at first base through half a season is no small feat.
Jim Sannes' Thoughts:
MVP: Mike Trout
Cy Young: Felix Hernandez
Rookie: Jose Abreu
It's about darn time that Mike Trout wins the Mike Trout award. He probably should have won it either last year or the year before, but he's even better this year. Although his on-base percentage is down a bit from last year's .432, that's not saying a lot. Try doing that two years in a row. Instead, he has replaced that with more pop, hitting 20 home runs already and giving himself the highest slugging percentage of his career at .594. If Trout doesn't win it this year, the internet may actually break.
What do you expect from a workhorse monster? You expect a bunch of innings, a whole lotta strikeouts, and a low number of walks. King Felix sets the guidelines for qualifying for such a role. He hasn't thrown less than seven innings in a start over his last ten outings, never allowing more than two earned runs over that span. When you add on the 9.57 strikeouts and 1.52 walks-per-nine, Hernandez is the guy you want at the front end of your rotation.
Jose Abreu actually has a higher slugging percentage than Mike Trout. In the 140 plate appearances since the end of his DL stint, Abreu is hitting .310/.357/.651 with 12 home runs. He has been on base at least once in 23 of his last 24 games, making him that 1-in-10,000 that could defeat Masahiro Tanaka for AL Rookie of the Year with the season he's having.
Alexander Griffel's Thoughts:
MVP: Nelson Cruz
Cy Young: Felix Hernandez
Rookie: Masahiro Tanaka
Yes, John Lackey, former steroid users should be candidates for major awards. Major League Baseball has a system in place to punish them, and Cruz paid his debt. Like or dislike the system, it’s what we have at the moment. Presumably clean, Cruz leads the league with 28 homers and 73 RBI, and his Baltimore Orioles are in first place. Getting your team to the postseason means something, and of the players ahead of him in OPS, none of their teams are in first place save Victor Martinez, who has far fewer homers and runs batted in. Don’t discount the value that Cruz has provided this year.
I don’t need to do much to defend this selection. King Felix is first in ERA, WHIP, FIP, ERA+, second in innings pitched, third in K’s. His Mariners are looking like a good team for once, and he’s their superstar.
Tanaka leads the AL with 12 wins, and is second to King Felix in ERA. He has a tiny 1.01 WHIP pitching in Yankee Stadium, and leads all AL pitchers with 4.2 WAR. He’s been a godsend to a Yankees rotation devastated by injuries, and if he gives them over 200 innings, he should be the Rookie of the Year. Jose Abreu is a worthy candidate as well, so it’s almost a toss up, but Tanaka is closer to the top of his league in more statistical categories than Abreu, so I give him the nod.
Dan Weigel's Thoughts:
MVP: Mike Trout
Cy Young: Felix Hernandez
Rookie: Jose Abreu
You’re probably thinking something to the effect of “He’s a stats guy and stats guys have an unjustified affinity for naming Mike Trout MVP every chance they get.†That may seem like the case and I’m sure you have heard the arguments before, but for the third year in a row, Trout is the best player in the American League. And maybe in all of baseball.
The most impressive thing about Trout this year is that he has essentially sold out for power, as his line-drive and ground-ball rates have plummeted while his fly-ball rate has spiked and remains incredible. He maintains an absurd .358 BABIP, which seems odd considering that only approximately 15% of his fly balls fall in for base hits, but is sustainable due to the sheer authority (exit velocity) by which Trout hits the baseball. Fly balls from Trout are different than fly balls from Ben Revere and it would be foolish to expect two vastly different hitters (namely in strength) to have similar results on batted ball types. Oh, and Trout also has the fourth highest slugging percentage in all of baseball. Newsflash: he hits the ball hard.
Even though he was not around back then, even Plato ought to agree that Felix Hernandez is the ideal form of a pitcher. King Felix gets most hitters to hit ground balls, strikes out pretty much everyone else, walks a batter and a half per nine innings and does not surrender home runs. Put those qualities together and you get a guy with a 5.1 WAR and a 1.94 FIP, both best in baseball among qualified starters by a hilariously wide margin.
His current dominance of the position brings back thoughts of Barry Bonds dominating hitting during his prime years, but those thoughts are quickly suppressed as we collectively recall that Barry Bonds is the only member of the 400-400 club, the 500-500 club, and the 750-500 club. Felix is still really good at pitching though.
If it weren’t for the resurgence of Nelson Cruz, Jose Abreu would have the most home runs. Guys who hit a lot of home runs are generally useful baseball players, and Jose Abreu is no different. He doesn’t walk much and isn’t particularly good in the field, but his ability to mash is unmatched. He leads the league in both slugging percentage and isolated power, showing that he has been able to consistently tap into his 80 grade power.
Ari Ross' Thoughts:
MVP: Mike Trout
Cy Young: Felix Hernandez
Rookie: Jose Abreu
Even though he went through a slump, Mike Trout still has the highest WAR, 5.5, in all of baseball and the highest weighted on-base percentage, .423, in the American League. After two years of finishing second to Miguel Cabrera in the AL MVP race, Trout finally gets his MVP award.
Not only does King Felix have the best ERA, 2.11, in the AL, he also leads the league in fielding independent pitching (FIP), 1.94, and expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP), 2.40. Hernandez is flat out dominating hitters, leading to another Cy Young nod.
The battle for AL Rookie of the Year has turned into a two way race between Jose Abreu and Masahiro Tanaka. But Abreu gets my nod as he has just been absolutely been raking it. Abreu's .611 slugging percentage leads with MLB, and his .336 isolated power, similar to slugging except giving more weight to extra-base hits and home runs, is more than 20 points better than the next best hitter.
Ryan Heffernon's Thoughts:
MVP: Mike Trout
Cy Young: Felix Hernandez
Rookie: Jose Abreu
This one is pretty easy. Mike Trout is the best and most valuable player in the American League, if not all of baseball. He put up MVP numbers in both of his first two seasons, but there was some dude winning triple crowns and AL pennants that thwarted any chance of Trout winning the award. This season, he leads the league WAR (5.5), OPS (.992) and OPS+ (172) as well as posting a nERD of 4.81, trailing only Troy Tulowitzki for the highest mark in baseball. Trout is well on his way to his first MVP award.
It’s easy to get caught up in the hype that has surrounded Masahiro Tanaka and forget about King Felix. However, if you look at the numbers, it really is no contest. Felix leads the American League in ERA (2.11), ERA+ (177), FIP (1.94) and WHIP (0.895) and his 2.54 nERD trails only David Price for the highest among pitchers. He is also getting hitters to swing at pitches out of the zone a career best 34.5% of the time.
This is easily the most competitive race for an American League award thus far. Jose Abreu and Masahiro Tanaka are both setting a new standard for production out of international rookies. Things could change as the season progresses, but for now, I’ll give the nod to Abreu. Abreu leads the league in SLG% (.619) and ISO (.338), to go along with his 27 long balls, which is good for 2nd in baseball. Let me also throw in the fact that he leads all American League first basemen in range factor. If you’re into that kind of stuff
Daniel Lindsey's Thoughts:
MVP: Mike Trout
Cy Young: Felix Hernandez
Rookie: Masahiro Tanaka
In the AL, Trout is fifth in home runs as well as runs batted in, and is tied for ninth in batting average. Trout leads not only the AL in fWAR (5.4), but the MLB as a whole. According to our nERD metric, he is tops in the AL (4.81) and is barelysecond to Troy Tulowitzki (4.85) in all of baseball. There is no doubt Trout is your midseason AL MVP.
King Felix is his usual dominating self this year, and he has even stepped it up a notch. Hernandez could go down as one of the greatest ever, but with so much attention on east coast teams, Hernandez isn't always in the spotlight like you may think. But he's second in HR/FB rate at 4.4%, and is only allowing 0.26 HR/9. Take his 9.57 K/9, his 5.1 fWAR, and 2.54 nERD score (second best starting pitcher, 21st overall) and you have a great recipe for the Cy Young award.
It's very hard not to award Abreu the rookie award, but Tanaka has been on fire since the beginning of the season. If it wasn't for Felix, I would have given Tanaka the Cy Young award. He already has 12 wins on the year, and is sixth in strikeouts. His last two starts may have not been the greatest outings, but that shouldn't mar his season so far. He's only allowed four or more earned runs three times this season (16 starts) and has recorded at least nine strikeouts in six of those starts.
