DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Tuesday 7/16/19
Every day is unique for daily fantasy baseball, which is both a blessing and a challenge. Although we can’t simply plug and play our favorite studs day in and day out, each slate presents us with a chance for a new gem to vault us up the leaderboards.
Through the use of numberFire’s tools, we can better identify the players primed to succeed each day, making the process of filling out a lineup just that much easier. In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy looking team to put up some big point totals.
Which names stand out for today on the DraftKings main slate? Let’s check it out, starting with the pitchers.
Pitchers to Target
High-Priced Pitcher
Walker Buehler ($10,200 on DraftKings): For a 15-game slate, the pitching options are pretty terrible tonight. Walker Buehler is in a pretty decent spot if not for the fact that he has been ridiculous this season. He has a 27.4 percent strikeout rate with a 3.46 ERA that is exactly in line with his 3.49 SIERA. In addition, he has a slate-best 3.4 percent walk rate. While a matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies wouldn't be at the top of my list, their 23.0 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers and .313 wOBA are pretty average and not a huge issue.
Brandon Woodruff ($8,700): With a slightly better strikeout rate than Buehler, Brandon Woodruff is bringing his 28.5 percent rate tonight as the Milwaukee Brewers host the Atlanta Braves. This is admittedly not a great matchup for Woodruff as the Braves have just a 22.4 percent strikeout rate which sits as the 10th least and their .335 wOBA against righties is tied for seventh and is pretty threatening. However, there is some hope for Woodruff's upside as he also has a great 5.7 percent walk rate and a 3.54 SIERA while rocking a .325 BABIP — something that should regress a bit.
Value Pitcher
Austin Voth ($7,200): He has just 27 Major League innings pitched — including just 14 this season. However, his 2019 numbers seem to be in line with his Triple-A numbers, which is at least somewhat encouraging. In the Majors, he has put up a 25.0 percent strikeout rate and modest 4.54 xFIP with his Triple-A 25.4 percent strikeout rate and 4.58 xFIP. Not great, but acceptable in a matchup against the Baltimore Orioles. The O's have a 23.4 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching which sits as the 11th-most, but it is their 28th ranked .296 wOBA that is the target here.
Hitters to Target
High-Priced Hitters
Rafael Devers ($5,500): Rafael Devers has taken a huge step forward this season. He has cut his strikeout rate down from 24.7 percent to 15.7 percent while maintaining his career 7.6 percent walk rate. We have seen his batting average skyrocket from .240 in 2018 to .326 in 2019 and an OBP increase from .298 to .380. He has done most of his individual damage against right-handed pitching which is to be expected given that he is a lefty. He has produced a staggering .409 wOBA and .256 ISO against righties and looks to continue that against Toronto Blue Jays' Jacob Waguespack.
Nolan Arenado ($5,100): Considering there is a left-handed pitcher in Coors Field against the Colorado Rockies tonight, this seems like a very cheap price tag for Nolan Arenado. He has absolutely destroyed southpaws this season with an incredible .430 wOBA and equally impressive .310 ISO. The lefty in question this evening will be Drew Pomeranz, a pitcher that has been solid in some aspects but a disaster in others. His 27.1 percent hard-hit rate and 26.4 percent line-drive rate are going to get him in a world of trouble tonight. While his .368 BABIP is inflated considerably, there is still reason to believe he doesn't have much chance at success tonight.
Nelson Cruz ($4,600): At the tender age of 39, Nelson Cruz continues to obliterate left-handed pitchers. In 67 plate appearances, he has put up an incredible .393 wOBA and .333 ISO. While the sample size is small, in three times as many plate appearances against lefties in 2018, Cruz put up a very similar .389 wOBA and .294 ISO so it is in line with what he has done recently. New York Mets' Steven Matz hasn't been great this season and with a 39.8 percent hard-hit rate and 35.4 percent fly-ball rate, he has allowed a 20.9 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate.
Value Hitters
Dan Vogelbach ($3,900): His first-half dominance has certainly cooled off considerably in the last two months, but that doesn't discount the numbers that he has put up against right-handed pitching. With an incredibly dominant .413 wOBA and .310 ISO against righties, Vogelbach has shown that he does belong in the Majors once and for all. His matchup tonight against Daniel Mengden is a fantastic one as Mengden has given up a 43.8 percent hard-hit rate and a 22.7 percent line-drive rate while sporting an ugly 5.23 SIERA.
Michael Brosseau ($3,800): His time in the Majors has been very limited, so take these numbers with an obvious grain of salt, but with a .382 wOBA and .333 ISO (22 plate appearances) Michael Brousseau is in an intriguing spot against New York Yankees veteran southpaw CC Sabathia. In 2019, Sabathia has struggled giving up a brutal 40.5 percent hard-hit rate and a 40.5 percent fly-ball rate which has resulted in an 18.0 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate.
Khris Davis ($3,400): Other than May in which he posted a .395 wOBA, Khris Davis has not been able to put up anything higher than a .315 wOBA across the board this season. He has struggled mightily, but the price here is right in line with his struggles. However, he has still been dominant against left-handed pitching this season with a .357 wOBA and a .269 ISO. He'll face Seattle Mariners' Marco Gonzales — a pitcher with an ugly 16.6 percent strikeout rate which certainly helps Davis' free-swinging ways.
Ryan Sheppard is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ryan Sheppard also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username donkshow_. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
