DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Wednesday 7/31/19
Every day is unique for daily fantasy baseball, which is both a blessing and a challenge. Although we can’t simply plug and play our favorite studs day in and day out, each slate presents us with a chance for a new gem to vault us up the leaderboards.
Through the use of numberFire’s tools, we can better identify the players primed to succeed each day, making the process of filling out a lineup just that much easier. In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy looking team to put up some big point totals.
Which names stand out for today on the DraftKings main slate? Let’s check it out, starting with the pitchers.
Pitchers to Target
High-Priced Pitcher
Jacob deGrom ($11,800 on DraftKings): Leading the slate with a 31.2 percent strikeout rate, there is little reason to find excuses to avoid Jacob DeGrom tonight. In addition to the elite strikeout rate, he has a solid 6.1 percent walk-rate and a fantastic 3.41 SIERA. He's got a premium matchup against the Chicago White Sox — a team that has struggled mightily against right-handed pitching. Their 26.2 percent strikeout rate is the second-highest in this split and their .296 wOBA ranks way down at 28th. This is about as great of a matchup as a pitcher can have so fade DeGrom at your own risk.
Mike Minor ($9,900): This is a high-risk, high-reward matchup for Mike Minor. He'll be taking on a Seattle Mariners team that strikes out a ton against left-handed pitching — the fourth-highest in the Majors with a 26.3 percent strikeout rate. However, on the other side of the spectrum, they are putting up a 10th ranked .327 wOBA against southpaws. Playing right into these numbers, Minor has a decent 24.8 percent strikeout rate but gives up a 36.3 percent hard-hit rate and 40.1 percent fly-ball rate. It's an expensive risk to take, but it could pay off in spades against a weak Mariners team.
Value Pitcher
Vincent Velasquez ($7,500): When Drew Smyly puts up a solid game against you, you are a struggling ball club. Vince Velasquez is in a somewhat similar situation as Minor in terms of a risk/reward aspect, but he comes in at a much lower price. He has a fantastic 27.3 percent strikeout rate, but the 46.4 percent hard-hit rate and 2.30 HR/9 are a nightmare. Luckily, the opposing San Francisco Giants are a bad hitting team. They've got a lowly .302 wOBA which is tied for the fourth-lowest in the Majors and although their 22.6 percent strikeout rate is just the 16th-most, there is still plenty of upside for Velasquez here.
Hitters to Target
High-Priced Hitters
Yordan Alvarez ($5,500): Yordan Alvarez continues to just destroy right-handed pitching. With an incredible .453 wOBA and .337 ISO, Alvarez will take on a young righty that has struggled in the Majors so far in Cleveland Indians' Zach Plesac. On the surface, it looks like Plesac has been solid with the sparkling 3.10 ERA, but his disastrous 5.21 SIERA and incredibly unsustainable .213 BABIP tell more of the story. He's also giving up a 36.8 percent hard-hit rate and a 37.8 percent fly-ball rate resulting in a 15.4 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate.
Danny Santana ($5,300): The switch-hitting Danny Santana has been incredible this season. The good thing, too, is that he's smashing both lefties and righties so it doesn't even matter who he faces right now. While the Seattle Mariners are expected to go with an opener tonight, it is left-hander Wade LeBlanc who should see the bulk of the action. Santana has put up a .377 wOBA and very powerful .295 ISO against righties. On the other side of the plate, Santana has been just as good with a .390 wOBA and .261 ISO which puts him in a great spot tonight.
Yasmani Grandal ($4,100): Another switch-hitter, which is rare for a catcher, that is having plenty of success is Yasmani Grandal. He is bringing more power against lefties with his .368 wOBA and .247 ISO, but against righties, there isn't much of a downgrade as he's sporting a .365 wOBA and .233 ISO. Tonight in a poor hitting park, he'll take on Oakland Athletics' Brett Anderson — a pitcher that has a horrific 5.29 SIERA. In addition, he doesn't strike anybody out with an embarrassingly low 12.1 percent strikeout rate.
Value Hitters
Brandon Belt ($3,600): We touched on the good things Velasquez does above, but there are certainly holes in his game. The 46.4 percent hard-hit rate is one, as well as a 45.3 percent hard-hit rate which has led to a 21.0 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate. In addition, he is walking people at an absurd 9.0 percent flip which has always been an issue for him. Brandon Belt has put up modest numbers with a .337 wOBA and a .180 ISO against righties but playing in Philadelphia is a positive hitting environment for him.
Cesar Hernandez ($3,400): As mentioned above, the park in Philadelphia is very hitter-friendly. Cesar Hernandez does not bring much power at all as he has a .344 wOBA and .144 ISO but he is a base-stealing threat which gives him a bit of upside. He'll take on San Francisco Giants' right-hander Jeff Samardzija — a pitcher that has struggled at times. He's given up a horrendous 42.5 percent hard-hit rate and 41.2 percent fly-ball rate which has resulted to a 13.5 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate. In addition, he's got an ugly 21.9 percent line-drive and 4.64 SIERA.
Khris Davis ($3,300): Man, this price has spiraled out of control for Khris Davis. Obviously, he hasn't been great this season, but this is a punt I'd roster any day at this price. He has only put up a .287 wOBA and .154 ISO against right-handed pitching this season but in 2018, Davis smashed righties to the tune of a .374 wOBA and a .315 ISO so there is certainly plenty of upside here. Taking on Milwaukee Brewers' Jordan Lyles seems like a great spot to get things going again as he has struggled keeping the ball in the park. His 37.6 percent hard-hit rate and 37.8 percent fly-ball rate has resulted in an ugly 18.2 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate.
Ryan Sheppard is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ryan Sheppard also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username donkshow_. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
