DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Monday 8/19/19
Every day is unique for daily fantasy baseball, which is both a blessing and a challenge. Although we can’t simply plug and play our favorite studs day in and day out, each slate presents us with a chance for a new gem to vault us up the leaderboards.
Through the use of numberFire’s tools, we can better identify the players primed to succeed each day, making the process of filling out a lineup just that much easier. In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy looking team to put up some big point totals.
Which names stand out for today on the DraftKings main slate? Let’s check it out, starting with the pitchers.
Pitchers to Target
High-Priced Pitcher
Trevor Bauer ($11,700 on DraftKings): The pitching tonight is bizarre as is the pricing on the slate. Trevor Bauer probably has the highest upside on the slate, but he also struggles with his control. He has a slate-best 27.6 percent strikeout rate but also a troublesome 9.5 percent walk-rate. In addition, he's got a solid 4.21 SIERA as he takes on the San Diego Padres. The matchup is great as the Padres have a 26.2 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers in addition to their .308 wOBA which ranks 23rd in the Majors.
Zac Gallen ($9,300): Zac Gallen was bizarrely traded at the deadline, but he has been pretty good this season outside of some walk issues. His 11.6 percent walk rate is a concern right now, but he had just a 5.1 percent walk rate in Triple-A so things should get better in the Majors. He's also put together a very good 27.4 percent strikeout rate and an acceptable 4.52 SIERA that is significantly worse than his deceiving 2.58 ERA. The matchup isn't the easiest against a Colorado Rockies team that has an 11th-best .327 wOBA against right-handed pitching but their 22.9 percent strikeout rate is encouraging.
Value Pitcher
Brendan McKay ($7,500): With an identical 27.4 percent strikeout rate, Brendan McKay is in a great matchup tonight. Not only does he have a solid strikeout rate, but his 6.2 percent walk rate and slate-best 3.90 SIERA are very good to see. He's going to take on a Seattle Mariners team that is striking out at a 25.5 percent clip against left-handed pitchers— the fourth-most in all of baseball. Although their 12th-ranked .331 wOBA is a bit concerning, there is plenty of strikeout upside for McKay tonight.
Hitters to Target
High-Priced Hitters
Mike Trout ($5,600): The best hitter in baseball is in an interesting spot as he takes on young Texas Rangers left-hander Kolby Allard. Mike Trout is better against right-handed pitching, but does it even matter? He still smashes lefties to the tune of an elite .416 wOBA and .303 ISO and has a solid matchup against a young pitcher. With just 18 innings in the Majors, you cannot really look at his numbers in the big leagues, so taking a look at his 4.36 xFIP in Triple-A along with just a 21.1 percent strikeout rate, there is no concern for Trout.
Juan Soto ($5,200): The Washington Nationals sophomore stud Juan Soto has been dominant once again against right-handed pitching. He has put up an elite .411 wOBA and .292 ISO as he comes into Pittsburgh to take on Pirates' right-hander Trevor Williams. While he hasn't been terrible, Williams certainly hasn't been very good this season as he has an ugly 5.04 SIERA. In addition, his 17.5 percent strikeout rate is not threatening and he's giving up a 24.3 percent line-drive rate and a 38.2 percent fly-ball rate.
Michael Brantley ($5,000): There are too many Houston Astros to choose from tonight so I went with one that I haven't really talked about much this season. Michael Brantley has been fantastic against right-handed pitching this season. His .404 wOBA is elite and his .239 ISO, while a bit underwhelming, is still very solid. He faces the laughing stock of the early part of the season in Edwin Jackson. He has been not terrible since coming to the Detroit Tigers, but he is still worth picking on with an incredible offense like the Astros.
Value Hitters
Matt Carpenter ($3,800): Oh boy, Matt Carpenter really fell off a cliff this season. When you consider that in 2018, he smashed right-handed pitching to the tune of a .385 wOBA and a .280 ISO and then look at his 2019 numbers and see a .295 wOBA and .156 ISO, it's unfortunate. He does have a great matchup tonight that perhaps will bring out some vintage Carpenter. He's facing Milwaukee Brewers' right-hander Zach Davies — a pitcher giving up a 37.1 percent hard-hit rate and 24.1 percent line-drive rate. In addition, he doesn't strike anybody out with a 14.9 percent strikeout rate and his 5.49 SIERA is third-worst on the slate.
Domingo Santana ($3,700): We talked about all of the bright spots in McKay's game above, but let's get into some of the numbers we can pick on. He's allowing a 36.1 percent hard-hit rate and a 41.7 percent fly-ball rate which has resulted in a 15.0 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate. In addition, his 25.0 percent line-drive rate could get him into some trouble. He does have a .352 BABIP so things should get better, but it's still worth noting. Domingo Santana brings plenty of power against lefties with his .351 wOBA and .250 ISO.
Trent Grisham ($3,500): Trent Grisham has been pretty solid this season and it's great to see him leading off against right-handed pitchers. That is exactly where he should fall tonight as the Brewers take on the St. Louis Cardinals' right-hander Dakota Hudson. He's giving up a brutal 41.1 percent hard-hit rate and a 22.6 percent line-drive rate. While his 20.1 percent fly-ball rate is great, when the ball is in the air he gets into trouble as his 23.5 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate would indicate. Grisham has been decent with a .316 wOBA and .211 ISO but the price and matchup are solid.
Ryan Sheppard is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ryan Sheppard also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username donkshow_. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
