3 Under-the-Radar MLB FanDuel Plays for 9/26/19
When being contrarian in daily fantasy sports, there's a fine line between taking a calculated risk and being reckless. But differentiating your lineups from everyone else is the name of the game if you plan on taking down one of those highly lucrative DFS tournaments. Whether it's because of Vegas totals, other options at a given position, or some gem you've found that everyone is overlooking, we can always find potential under-owned plays if we look hard enough.
Here are three such players to consider branching out for on FanDuel's main slate
Dylan Cease, P, Chicago White Sox
FanDuel Price: $7,300
The Chicago White Sox are rather large home underdogs tonight at +166, so we shouldn't see too much ownership on them.
Dylan Cease will be on the mound, and even with his smaller 73-inning sample this season, he has shown a bit of upside we can go after in tournaments. He comes in with a 24.9% strikeout rate, solid 45.7% ground-ball rate, but questionable 21.4% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio. He gets decent strikeouts and some ground balls but is above the league average in how many fly balls go for home runs. This is a bit of a risk-reward spot, since he could rack up some solid fantasy points via strikeouts, or he could get burned by allowing home runs.
On a small five-game slate with a very clear top pitching option, pivoting off of that pitcher -- Zack Wheeler -- could be massive if he busts. Cease comes in with 41 or more FanDuel points in three of his last six games, which is promising for a player at his price point.
Kole Calhoun, OF, Los Angeles Angels
FanDuel Price: $3,100
I can say this with absolute confidence -- the Los Angeles Angels aren't a good team. But Wade Miley isn't a good pitcher, either.
The Angels were always an average offensive team to begin with, and since they lost Mike Trout, things have gone even further downhill. But, their matchup tonight versus Miley is worth taking a shot at.
In a small sample size since the beginning of September, Miley is allowing 2.45 home runs per nine innings while posting an 8.0% strikeout rate, 6.70 SIERA (Skill Interactive Earned Run Average), and .523 batting average against. Those numbers are so unbelievably bad you should consider stacking against him. Yes, that is a four-game sample size, which is very, very small, but on a slate this size, you have to get away from the chalk.
The Angels shouldn't be highly owned tonight, and Kole Calhoun would be the hitter you want from their lineup. This is a lefty-lefty spot for Calhoun, which should further decrease his ownership, but he comes in with a .215 ISO and 23.8% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio in this split, giving him power upside.
Ian Happ, 2B, Chicago Cubs
FanDuel Price: $2,600
The Chicago Cubs were eliminated from the playoff hunt last night, but that doesn't mean they don't have fantasy value tonight.
They are up against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who will have Joe Musgrove on the mound. I spoke about Musgrove on The Solo Shot today, and while I like him as a pitching option for the savings he offers, he isn't without risk. This season Musgrove is allowing 1.29 home runs per nine innings to lefties, along with a .336 wOBA. The hits can come early and often against him, bringing a nice floor of points for opposing hitters.
The game has an over/under sitting at 9.0, so we should be in for some runs tonight.
The reason why a player like Ian Happ could be lower-owned is that the Cubs are decent underdogs. Only 22% of the money is on the Cubs tonight, according to oddsFire, which means the public is largely in favor of the Pirates. Happ is holding a .339 wOBA, .229 ISO, and 43.8% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hurlers this season. He lines up nicely against Musgrove.
