Burning Questions: Who Will Make the 2014 MLB Playoffs?
As we approach the end of the baseball season, we've got some divisions that are nearly locked up, while others are still up for grabs. According to our numbers, Baltimore and Washington have over a 97% chance of making the postseason by winning their divisions, but they're the only teams that appear to have their divisions nearly won. At least that's what the numbers say.
So with that, we turn to our baseball writers and ask this week's burning question: Who will make the 2014 MLB playoffs?
Michael Stern’s Thoughts
AL Central Winner: Detroit Tigers
AL West Winner: Oakland Athletics
AL Wild-Card Teams: Los Angeles Angels, New York Yankees
In the American League West, both the Angels and Athletics should cruise into the playoffs, but L.A. needs to find a serviceable replacement for Garrett Richards in order to stay afloat in the division race. While the Angels just swept the A’s, their season-ending six-game road trip to Oakland and Seattle looks frightening and pushes them to the wild-card game.
In the Central, Kansas City has been on a tremendous run, but these young Royals have never seen a pressure-packed pennant chase before and they might wilt under the pressure just like they wilted last Monday on national TV. A six-game road trip to Detroit and the Bronx could kill the Royals’ playoff chances. I still think Detroit has too much pitching to lose this division and Miguel Cabrera is due to heat up soon as well.
If not Kansas City, who travels to Anaheim for the wild card game? Seattle seems to be fading fast, as they also have plenty of young players and any rotation relying on Erasmo Ramirez, Roenis Elias, and Chris Young looks shaky come September. They also play 13 more games against the Angels and Athletics. I’ll take the Yankees to make a surprise push. The offense is old, but can produce for a month, and if Masahiro Tanaka comes back to join Hiroki Kuroda and Brandon McCarthy in the rotation, New York suddenly looks pretty formidable.
NL Central Winner: St. Louis Cardinals
NL Wild-Card Teams: San Francisco Giants, Milwaukee Brewers
In the National League, it’s the same old story. St. Louis and San Francisco are lurking and will definitely reach the playoffs. The Cardinals win the Central year in and year out, and still have seven games against the Brewers. In addition, Milwaukee has a series against the Giants, who have questions at the back of their rotation but have five series left to feast on Colorado, San Diego, and Arizona. Pittsburgh has too many injuries to stay in the race, so the Brewers are assured at least a wild card, and that’s where they’ll end up, as I’d rather have the Cardinal rotation down the stretch than the inexperienced Milwaukee group.
Ari Ross’ Thoughts
AL Central Winner: Kansas City Royals
AL West Winner: Oakland Athletics
AL Wild-Card Teams: Los Angeles Angels, Seattle Mariners
As the saying goes, pitching and defense wins championships, and the Royals will win the AL Central Division crown as a result, barring an unexpected late season run from the Tigers or Indians. The Royals defense, led by Alex Gordon, is the best in baseball with a 49.6 UZR, while their pitching is top 10 in baseball with a 3.57 ERA, 3.80 FIP and 3.97 xFIP - over a half run better than the Tigers.
In the West, the Athletics will take the division crown with their fantastic pitching, 3.29 ERA, 3.73 FIP, 3.69 xFIP and help from Garrett Richard's injury. The Mariners, thanks to the pitching staff’s 3.02 ERA, 3.57 FIP, 3.60 xFIP, will take one of the wild-card spots and the Angels' solid all-around team - and because I'm not betting against Mike Trout - will take the other wild card spot.
NL Central Winner: Milwaukee Brewers
NL Wild-Card Teams: St. Louis Cardinals, Pittsburgh Pirates
With Yadier Molina just coming back, and with injuries in their rotation, I just don't think the Cardinals have enough to win the division. The Brewers are getting Matt Garza back soon, and he'll really help their playoff push. I still think the Cardinals will make playoffs, just as a wild card, along with the Pirates, who will go as far as Andrew McCutchen will take them. Considering he's an NL MVP candidate right now, McCutchen should propel the Pirates into the playoffs.
John Stolnis’ Thoughts
AL Central Winner:Detroit Tigers
AL West Winner: Los Angeles Angels
AL Wild-Card Teams: Oakland Athletics, Kansas City Royals
I really do think the Tigers will survive their bullpen woes and eventually overtake a Royals team that is simply not as talented as Detroit's. The addition of David Price will start to pay dividends, and when added to a rotation of Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez and Rick Porcello (and hopefully an improved Justin Verlander), Detroit should end up on top. Still, I like K.C.'s defense and pitching, and think they'll be able to score enough runs to secure the second wild card.
As for the West, the A's have been struggling on offense for months, even before trading away Yoenis Cespedes. As I learned from watching my 2011 Phillies fall short in the playoffs, having a rotation for the ages doesn't necessarily guarantee success. The Angels will certainly miss Garrett Richards, but momentum is definitely on their side and they appear to be on their way to winning that division.
NL Central Winner: Milwaukee Brewers
NL Wild-Card Teams: San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves
The Central was supposed to be a strong division, but just about every team there has major issues. Pittsburgh's best player, Andrew McCutchen, is on the shelf again and their pitching staff just hasn't been able to get on a roll, so I don't see them making it. The Brewers have pitching woes but their offense is pretty strong. And St. Louis' lack of power makes it difficult for them to score runs on a consistent basis.
It's basically a coin flip right now, but I think the Brewers, who have the best run differential in the division, will be able to hold off the punch-less Cardinals. I also think St. Louis, which has a negative run differential, will lose a battle with the Braves for the second wild card spot. Atlanta has been playing better lately and play an easier division than the Cardinals and Pirates, which could allow them to pile up a few more wins as a result. Also, there's just something about the Giants.
Daniel Lindsey’s Thoughts
AL Central Winner:Kansas City Royals
AL West Winner: Los Angeles Angels
AL Wild-Card Teams: Oakland Athletics, Detroit Tigers
Could the epic ALCS everyone penciled after the July trade deadline actually be the matchup for the AL’s wild card play-in game? Don’t laugh if it actually happens. While Detroit has arguably two of the best pitchers outside of Clayton Kershaw and the rest of baseball let the A’s assemble one of the best pitching staffs to date, each team’s weakness could cause them to lose their respective divisions.
It's brought up that the Royals and Angels may not be ready for the pressure of a pennant race, but when it comes down to it, it’s about your pitching and defense being on point at the right time (Royals) and being very opportunistic on offense (Angels). I called the Royals making the playoffs last year, but apparently I was a year off. However, all these teams make it to the playoffs, it's nice to not have the AL playoffs dominated by the Yankees or Red Sox for once.
NL Central Winner: St. Louis Cardinals
NL Wild-Card Teams: Milwaukee Brewers, San Francisco Giants
While one contender gets a key player back (the Cardinals), another loses their most recognizable member (Pirates). With Molina back for St. Louis, expect the Cardinals to do what they do best and quietly enter the playoffs while methodically knocking off everyone in their path to at least the ALCS. It’s what they do, and what they've been doing for the past decade now.
Milwaukee won’t go down without a fight though, and will easily capture a wild-card spot. The other spot will likely belong to the San Francisco Giants, unless they somehow crash the party in the NL West. Either way, with the depth of the Central and fight in the NL West, the Braves will have to win their division to make the playoffs this year. It won’t be an easy task though if Bryce Harper keeps mashing home runs.
Jacob Alder’s Thoughts
AL Central Winner: Detroit Tigers
AL West Winner: Los Angeles Angels
AL Wild-Card Teams: Oakland Athletics, Seattle Mariners
This isn’t the NBA, but I’m going with the star power here with Detroit over Kansas City and Cleveland. Despite overwhelmingly poor fielding metrics and a lack of depth on offense, the Tigers make it work with Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and Ian Kinsler on offense and the stellar rotation.
In the west, the Angels have all the momentum and this is finally the year they have been playing up to their talent levels. The offense is rejuvenated and the pitching staff might be able to get over the crushing loss of Garrett Richards with the emergence of Matt Shoemaker. My two wild cards, the A’s and Mariners, both have underperformed according to their Pythagorean records and the Mariners would be interesting in the playoffs given their .591 winning percentage vs. .500+ teams.
NL Central Winner: St. Louis Cardinals
NL Wild-Card Teams: San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves
Despite some bumps along the way, the Cardinals still manage to be in the hunt for October. Now that Yadier Molina is back and the Cards can field a full lineup, they can compete and that should be enough to top Milwaukee and Pittsburgh.
San Francisco doesn’t have one thing that makes them so appealing, it’s just the Giants are in a great position and have a complete team with legitimate stars in the lineup, on the field and on the mound. Like the Giants, the Braves are a deep team with contributors around the diamond and are only a game and a half out of the wild card.
Jim Sannes’ Thoughts
AL Central Winner: Detroit Tigers
AL West Winner: Los Angeles Angels
AL Wild-Card Teams: Oakland Athletics, Seattle Mariners
Call it stubbornness if you wish, but I still have trouble not believing the Tigers can pull this off. I was beyond tempted to put the Indians in this slot because of the Anibal Sanchez injury, but it just seems that Detroit should have the fire-power to pull back out in front. "Should" doesn't always translate to "will," though.
As far as the A.L. West...I messed up. I called the race over back on July 4th, and now the A's are five games out. Offense is, allegedly, still important in MLB. Who knew? But, even with their recent slide, it's hard to see the A's not winning the wild card. Here are the A.L. leaders in run differential:
1. Oakland Athletics +151
2. Los Angeles Angels +118
3. Seattle Mariners +96
If this were 2012, one of those teams would not make the playoffs. This is where the sense of the second wild card team emerges. The A.L. West is not hospitable to mediocrity.
NL Central Winner: Pittsburgh Pirates
NL Wild Card teams: San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves
As for the National League, the Central is going to be interesting. For the season, not a single team in the division has a run differential greater than plus-15. However, in the month of August, the Pirates, Cardinals and Brewers ranked third, fourth and fifth respectively in the N.L. in wOBA. Because the Pirates are the only team that had acceptable pitching in August (Milwaukee and St. Louis ranked 12th and 15th respectively in the N.L. in staff WAR in August), I'll give them the edge.
The Giants, outside of that one putrid stretch in June and July, have actually been a great team this year. If you exclude their games from June 9th to July 12th (a scintillating 8-23 record!), the team is 66-39, which would be the best winning percentage in the league at .629. Unfortunately for them, you don't just get to pretend that one month never happened (or four months if you're the Rockies), so they may get relegated to the wild card.
I have the Braves joining them, largely because of their pitching. Despite low strikeout and mediocre walk numbers, the team still posted the third-lowest N.L. ERA in August. The Nationals were first in that category, thus the wild card discussion, but the Braves are in a good position to make some magic here down the stretch.
Ryan Heffernon's Thoughts
AL Central Winner: Kansas City Royals
AL West Winner: Los Angeles Angels
AL Wild-Card Teams: Oakland Athletics, Seattle Mariners
Detroit has the stronger roster versus the Royals, without a doubt. However, if we have one correlation to point to with playoff success, it's in the bullpen. And the Tigers have plenty of issues on that front. Even with that, I liked the Tigers until Anibal went down, and without him and a more favorable Royals schedule, I think Kansas City hols Detroit off.
In the West, I have the Angels simply because they are the hotter team right now. I think the A's will get together in time for the playoffs, but they are still coping with the loss of Cespedes, so I give the Angels a slight edge. To throw a wrinkle into things, I wanted to buy Seattle. Unless Robinson Cano just goes absolutely nuts during this final month or so, I just don't see them having enough in the tank. I think they will continue building into next season, but I have the Tigers winning that second Wild Card for now.
NL Central Winner: Milwaukee Brewers
NL Wild-Card Teams: San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves
The NL Central has mostly been a dud in 2014. You could argue that going into 2014, the Central was the strongest division in baseball. However, injuries to Yadier Molina, Andrew McCutchen and a drastic regression of offense in Cincinnati have made it very lackluster.
I have Milwaukee holding on in the Central in part because of the issues surrounding the other clubs, but also because I like what the Brewers bring to the table. Let's also not forget that they are fifth in all of baseball in fWAR. Before McCutchen went down, I thought the Pirates had a decent chance at grabbing that second wild-card spot, but now it looks like a two horse race. And neither of the horses look like they really planning on running away from the other. Both Cardinals and the Braves have very favorable schedules going forward, but I think this battle of attrition will side in favor of Atlanta.
