MLB Sim Sports Picks for 4/26/20 on FanDuel
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FanDuel's MLB Sims Sports, a new free-to-play format that simulates the baseball games that were originally scheduled for play each day. Starting pitchers and batting orders are announced in advance, and then games will play out through numberFire's custom simulator.
Starting pitchers will have a simulated pitch count that we won't know beforehand but should be roughly based on their performance last season. Hitters will play the whole game, so there's no fear of pinch hitters and the like.
Best of all, the simulation is meant to replicate real life, so all the usual things you typically analyze in MLB DFS -- things like player skills, matchups, park factors, and platoon splits -- are in play here, so you can approach this in much the same way you would on a real baseball slate.
Here's the breakdown for today's main slate, which starts at 7:05 p.m. EST.
Pitchers
Stephen Strasburg ($11,700) is the slate's top arm, and I'd be all over him even if he had an iffy matchup. On the road at the San Francisco Giants, the matchup is way better than iffy. San Fran posted an ugly .295 wOBA in 2019, the third-worst mark in baseball. Stras finished with a 3.49 SIERA, 29.8% strikeout rate and 13.4% swinging-strike rate last season.
I'm split between a handful of guys for who is the slate's best hurler other than Strasburg, but I think I'm landing on Mike Minor ($8,900). Minor's 2019 was a bit of a mirage as he had a 4.51 SIERA and 3.59 ERA. But I'm on him today for the strikeout upside he offers in a home date with the Seattle Mariners.
Minor recorded a 23.2% strikeout rate and 11.5% swinging-strike rate in 2019, positioning him well to take advantage of a Seattle offense that had the fourth-highest strikeout rate (25.5%) last campaign.
Looking for a value pitcher, Yonny Chirinos ($6,500) checks some boxes, and he'll make it a lot easier to load up on Coors bats. In 2019, Chirinos produced a 21.5% strikeout rate, 5.3% walk rate and 10.6% swinging-strike rate. He is facing a Kansas City Royals offense that ranked 27th in wOBA (.305) last season.
Stacks
The Milwaukee Brewers and Colorado Rockies are squaring off at Coors. You want exposure to that game if you can afford it, but we won't cover either of those teams here. Coors is Coors. You don't need me to elaborate too much.
Outside of those two offenses, I love the New York Yankees as a top stack as they host Zach Plesac. Plesac posted a mere 18.5% strikeout rate last year while allowing a 38.1% hard-hit rate across 115 2/3 frames.
The Yankees are pretty cheap, too, with only Aaron Judge ($3,700) priced above $3,400. As always, the Bronx Bombers offer us a plethora of options, but the guys I'll be looking to most are Judge, DJ LeMahieu ($3,000), Gleyber Torres ($3,000) and Aaron Hicks ($2,900), with Hicks slotted into the five hole.
I also like the Tampa Bay Rays at home versus Jake Junis. A year ago, Junis surrendered a 42.6% hard-hit rate, with lefties crushing him for a .352 wOBA and 44.4% hard-hit rate.
Tampa has plenty of left-handed bats we can target, led by Austin Meadows ($3,100). Meadows rocked righties last year to the tune of a .394 wOBA, 44.2% hard-hit rate and 42.8% fly-ball rate. Brandon Lowe ($2,900), Kevin Kiermaier ($2,800), Ji-Man Choi ($2,700) and Yoshitomo Tsutsugo ($2,200) will all hit from the left side, with Lowe in the leadoff spot.
The author of this article has no involvement with the MLB Sim Sports simulations powered by numberFire and has no knowledge of the results of tonight’s contest.
