KBO Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Wednesday 6/24/20
We've got good vibes going on with baseball right now. It seems like Major League Baseball could be finalizing a schedule to return to play soon, and we've got solid action in South Korea and Japan to keep us happy until then.
Mother Nature is here to take a dump on that optimism.
All five KBO games scheduled for Wednesday are at risk of being rained out. The games between NC and KT, Doosan and SK, and Kiwoom and LG, specifically, have good odds of postponement or delay, based on the weather forecasts at My KBO Stats, and the other two figure to at least be wet. For just a five-game slate, it's important to note this before we dig in, and it may force you to be around as lock approaches in order to make any appropriate changes.
With that said, there are still more than 12 hours before the games get cracking, and things could change in that time. So let's at least run through the slate in case the outlook improves.
Here's a breakdown of the starting pitchers on the slate sorted by the FanDuel salary of their team's starting pitching slot. You can find opposing runs per game totals at My KBO Stats, and the team strikeout rates are at Baseball Reference. The park factors are multi-year run factors via STATIZ with 1000 being neutral and a higher number favoring hitters.
| Pitcher | Salary | L/R | Opp. | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | HR% | Opp. R/G | Opp. K% | Park Factor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yoon-dong Heo (Samsung) |
$29 | L | HAN | 3.60 | 1.67 | 5.8% | 11.6% | 2.9% | 3.40 | 20.2% | 1093 |
| Dan Straily (Lotte) |
$28 | R | KIA | 2.10 | 1.01 | 28.4% | 7.8% | 0.9% | 5.00 | 17.0% | 1022 |
| Mike Wright (NC) |
$27 | R | @KT | 3.80 | 1.29 | 19.6% | 10.1% | 2.6% | 5.55 | 18.6% | 973 |
| Hui-kwan Yu (Doosan) |
$26 | L | @SK | 3.68 | 1.52 | 7.8% | 8.3% | 2.1% | 3.74 | 19.3% | 1038 |
| Jong-hoon Park (SK) |
$25 | R | DOO | 4.4 | 1.31 | 25.3% | 8.9% | 2.1% | 6.29 | 15.2% | 1038 |
| Min-soo Kim (KT) |
$24 | R | NC | 7.97 | 2.02 | 16.3% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 6.63 | 17.8% | 973 |
| Seung-ho Lee (Kiwoom) |
$24 | L | @LG | 5.05 | 1.46 | 13.6% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 5.81 | 16.2% | 959 |
| Tyler Wilson (LG) |
$24 | R | KIW | 4.18 | 1.25 | 17.7% | 7.6% | 1.5% | 5.79 | 19.2% | 959 |
| Min-woo Lee (Kia) |
$23 | R | @LOT | 5.12 | 1.29 | 15.4% | 7.7% | 1.5% | 4.64 | 16.1% | 1022 |
| Shi-hwan Jang (Hanwha) |
$21 | R | @SAM | 6.89 | 2.11 | 22.3% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 5.19 | 17.9% | 1093 |
The shame about the rain is that we've actually got enticing options in both our pitchers and our hitters. So let's cross our fingers, run through the optimal plays, and hope the rain stays away.
Pitchers
Dan Straily (Lotte Starting P; $28) has just a middling matchup with the Kia Tigers. But at this point, that doesn't even matter; you use Straily no matter what.
Straily has the best individual numbers on the slate in every top pitching category except for walk rate. His 28.4% strikeout rate is more than three percentage points clear of all other starters, and it's more than six percentage points ahead of the third-best pitcher in that department. From an upside perspective, you're not equalling Straily.
The only argument against using Straily is hoping Lotte's game gets rained out while others play. However, the forecast for Lotte versus Kia is one of the better ones on the slate, so Straily is the pitcher we should latch onto.
If you want to play the rain angle, your top alternatives are likely Mike Wright (NC Starting P; $27) and Tyler Wilson (LG Starting P; $24). It's worth noting that both have worse forecasts than Straily, so this isn't necessarily an ideal thought process, but baseball and weather can both be a little wacky at times. So why not.
Wright is facing the KT Wiz, who are prone to blowups offensively but also have an above-average strikeout rate at 18.6%. Wright has the arsenal to take advantage with a 19.6% strikeout rate this year, helping him put up a 3.80 ERA in eight starts. He'll save you just $1 off of Straily, but it's within Wright's range of outcomes to be the highest scorer on the slate.
Wilson, meanwhile, provides a bigger discount down at $24. With that discount comes risk, though, as he's facing the Kiwoom Heroes. Kiwoom is fourth in the league in runs per game, so they could light Wilson up. At the same time, they have the third-highest strikeout rate, giving Wilson a path to a big game. He's also in the most pitcher-friendly park of the night.
Wilson's strikeout rate has been more muted than that of Straily and Wright as it sits at 17.7%. He does a good job of limiting hard contact, though, and finished last year with a 2.92 ERA. The big appeal in Wilson is the reduced salary if you decide to jump off of Straily, nudging him ahead of Wright as the top alternative we've got.
Stacks
For the second straight night, our top stack of the slate is an absolute no-brainer in the Samsung Lions. They're facing Shi-hwan Jang, who can get some strikeouts but struggles mightily with walks and long balls. Putting that in the most hitter-friendly park on the slate figures to only amplify those issues.
To top it all off, Samsung is a saliva-inducing salary saver with no hitters carrying a salary higher than $9. Because Jang is a righty, we can feel free to load back up on Ja-Wook Lee ($9), who has slashed .329/.400/.576 to open the season. Hak-Ju Lee ($7) also regains the platoon advantage and hit cleanup last time they faced a right-handed starter, meaning Samsung is an ideal team to stack when spending up for Straily.
For a second value stack, you can turn your attention to the Lotte Giants. Lotte's offense hasn't been anything special this year, but they're in a plus park and facing Min-woo Lee. Lee has a 5.12 ERA and 15.4% strikeout rate for the season as he transitions into being a full-time starter. While making 26 of 32 appearances in relief last year, Lee's ERA was up at 5.43.
Although Ah-Seop Son ($13) and Jun-Woo Lee ($12) aren't super cheap, Dae-Ho Lee ($10) and Dixon Machado ($10) are both affordable for Straily lineups and have put up decent numbers this year. Pairing Lotte with Samsung should allow you to get up to Son and Jun-Woo Lee if you want, as well, so Straily's lofty salary isn't all that intimidating on this slate.
If you decide to roll with Wilson or just happen to have extra salary laying around, that's where the NC Dinos slide onto our radar. They'll face Min-soo Kim, who is being stretched out as a starter despite holding a 7.97 ERA for the season. In 12 total appearances -- three starts -- Kim has allowed the highest homer rate on the slate, and NC has proven the entire year they can jump all over that. That makes NC worth a look, even if it means you have to scrounge for savings elsewhere.
Stacking NC allows us to snag Eui-Ji Yang ($14) fresh off a stint on the injured list. Yang was sick and missed about a week, but he jumped right back into the lineup Tuesday and bashed his seventh homer of the season. Yang is a catcher, so you'll have to ensure he's playing, but he is a top-tier play if he is.
