MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 9/24/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
New York Mets at Washington Nationals
Over 9.0 (-102): 3-Star Rating out 5
Tonight's New York Mets-Washington Nationals matchup pits lefties David Peterson and Patrick Corbin against each other.
Corbin was excellent last year, but he hasn't been quite as good in 2020. While his 4.22 SIERA tells us he hasn't been as bad as his 4.76 ERA suggests, Corbin's strikeout rate has dropped 6.7 percentage points -- down to 21.8%. He's been prone to blow-up outings, especially of late, allowing seven earned runs in his last start and five earned runs two outings before that one.
Peterson started well this year, but his season-long numbers look pretty ugly as he sports a 5.34 SIERA. He'd permitted seven runs across seven innings in two outings prior to a dazzling 10-strikeout, one-run performance in his last start.
Our model projects Washington to edge this one 5.35-5.33. We have 10.68 total runs being scored, so we see plenty of value on the 9.0-run over/under. We forecast the over to hit 57.90% of the time.
Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox
Orioles +1.5 (-144): 3-Star Rating out 5
Over 9.5 (+100): 3-Star Rating out 5
Our model sees tonight's Baltimore Orioles-Boston Red Sox game playing out differently than what the current lines suggest, making this a spot to target for betting value.
It's Baltimore's Alex Cobb against Boston's Martin Perez. Neither pitcher has been any good. Cobb has a 4.67 SIERA and 17.0% strikeout rate, while Perez owns a 5.40 SIERA, 18.3% strikeout rate, and 11.2% walk rate. On top of that, both bullpens are roughly league-average (or a little worse in the Orioles' case) in SIERA.
With Boston (.333) and the O's (.319) both posting solid marks in wOBA, it's easy to see why we're into the over, which we project to hit 66.99% of the time. We project 11.29 total runs in this one.
With Baltimore holding a slight edge in the starting-pitching department and being the better overall team by our numbers, we have the 1.5-run underdogs winning 5.81-5.48. It's basically a coin-flip game as we give the O's win odds of 51.23%, but we have them covering 1.5 runs 68.65% of the time.
