MLB Betting Guide: Friday 9/25/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks
Over 6.0 (-115): 3-Star Rating out 5
Our model thinks the 6.0-run total in the first game of tonight's Colorado Rockies-Arizona Diamondbacks doubleheader is too low as we project 7.5 runs to be scored.
The pitching matchup is Antonio Senzatela against Zac Gallen. Senzatela carries a 3.13 ERA despite a 4.87 SIERA and 14.0% strikeout rate. Gallen, meanwhile, is good and sports a 4.01 SIERA. But he's scuffled of late, allowing 12 earned runs across his last 16 innings (three starts).
And when the starters come out of the game, the offenses should find plenty of joy against these bullpens as both rank in the bottom-four in SIERA -- though the impact of the bullpens is negated some by a seven-inning affair.
As I said earlier, we forecast 7.5 total runs to be scored in this game. We give the over a 60.76% chance of hitting, making this one of the best bets of the night, per our model.
Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore +1.5 (-118): 3-Star Rating out 5
Baltimore Moneyline (+160): 2-Star Rating out 5
We like the Baltimore Orioles tonight a lot more than oddsmakers do. If it feels like that's been a theme this week, that's because it has.
The Toronto Blue Jays clinched a playoff berth last night and sit six games ahead of the O's in the standings. But by some other measures, Baltimore looks like the better squad. The Orioles (-14) hold a two-run advantage over Toronto (-16) in run differential, and that's with the Jays benefitting from playing the second-easiest schedule, per Fangraphs. Our algorithm has the 15th-ranked O's four spots in front of the Blue Jays.
While Baltimore is a 1.5-run 'dog tonight when Jorge Lopez and Taijuan Walker square off, our model sees the O's winning 4.91-4.76. With Baltimore at +160 on the moneyline, there's value in what we see as close to a 50/50 game. Or you could take the O's to cover 1.5 runs (-118), which we see happening 66.86% of the time.
