MLB

MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 10/14/20

Kenyatta Storin  —  @KenyattaStorin Oct 14th, 2020

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros

Under 8.0 (-106): 4-Star Rating out of 5

The Tampa Bay Rays and Houston Astros have now combined for three, six, and seven runs in this series, and numberFire's model expects that low-scoring trend to continue again tonight.

Of course, it doesn't hurt when you have Tyler Glasnow as one of the two pitchers taking the mound. Glasnow posted a 3.04 SIERA, 38.2% strikeout rate, and 9.2% walk rate in the regular season, and he's racked up 20 punchouts in 13.1 innings this postseason. Walks can be a problem, but it's otherwise hard to argue with those marks.

While the Astros boasted a league-best 19.8% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching this year, they were more of an average offense in the split (102 wRC+).

Houston starter Zack Greinke is tougher to predict tonight. He produced a solid 3.72 SIERA, 24.5% strikeout rate, and 3.3% walk rate in the regular season but has now scuffled in back-to-back postseason starts. Arm soreness cropped up in the ALDS, as well, further muddying the waters.

But the good news for Greinke is that Tampa Bay struck out at a 26.4% clip versus right-handed pitching in the regular season -- only the Tigers were worse.

While Greinke's recent play could give us pause, numberFire's algorithm projects the under hitting 64.2% of the time, giving us a four-star betting value.