MLB

MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 10/15/20

Austan Kas  —  @AustanKas Oct 15th, 2020

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves

Atlanta +1.5 (+122): 3-Star Rating out of 5

The Los Angeles Dodgers are the best team in baseball. They went a staggering 43-17 in the regular season, and by our nERD-based rankings, the Dodgers are in their own stratosphere.

But the second-best team, per our numbers, is the Atlanta Braves, and we see value in betting on the Braves tonight with Atlanta being a 1.5-run underdog on the runline.

The pitching matchup certainly doesn't bode well for the Braves as we've got Clayton Kershaw squaring off against Bryse Wilson. While that obviously favors the Dodgers, Kershaw may not be 100% healthy after being scratched from his scheduled start in Game 2. Plus, this Atlanta lineup has some lefty mashers in Ronald Acuna, Marcell Ozuna, and Dansby Swanson.

Wilson has a 5.48 SIERA in 42 2/3 MLB innings, so he could be in big trouble against the mighty Dodgers' lineup. But it's safe to assume the Braves' bullpen will be a big factor, and Atlanta's relievers had the ninth-most WAR in 2020, per Fangraphs.

We project this game to be much closer than the runline suggests. We have the Dodgers winning by a score of 4.78-4.17, and we think the Braves cover 1.5 runs 57.37% of the time. With the line at +122, there's some value here.