3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Opening Day
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Kenta Maeda Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+120)
This is a matchup of a high-strikeout pitcher versus a high-strikeout offense as Kenta Maeda is on the mound up against the Milwaukee Brewers.
Maeda enjoyed a career year last year that saw him finish second in Cy Young voting. He was able to average six innings a start while racking up 10.9 punchouts per 9 innings. His strikeout rate was 32.3% in 2020, and he goes up against a Milwaukee team that held a National League-worst 26.6% strikeout rate last campaign.
Our projections give Maeda a high chance of striking out at least eight batters and getting to the over. The only slight concern may be pitch count. We have him racking up for 8.72 strikeouts, and there is some solid juice on the over.
Shane Bieber Over 8.5 Strikeouts (+108)
You might be thinking an 8.5 is a bit too high, but Shane Bieber is pitching against the Detroit Tigers.
When we have a pitcher who struck out batters out at a rate of 14.2 per nine innings last year and 11.1 per nine for his career, our ears should perk up. Bieber finished 2020 with a 30.4% strikeout rate and 17.1% swinging-strike rate. Detroit was one of the worst teams in the American League when it came to plate discipline and strikeouts. They ranked dead last in walk rate (7.1%) and had the highest strikeout rate (27.3%).
Bieber averaged nearly 6.5 innings per start last year, and we project him to get 8.81 strikeouts today. Expect the over to hit here.
Aaron Judge To Hit a Home Run (+265)
The New York Yankees are expected to hit a ton of home runs this season -- led of course by Aaron Judge.
Judge is a pure power hitter and produces a home run at a rate of one every three games. Even when he has not been healthy, which was the case in 2020, he banged out nine home runs in just 28 games played last season. He is going up against one of the better ground-ball pitchers in Hyun-jin Ryu (50.8% ground-ball rate), but Judge mashes lefties.
Judge had a .459 wOBA and 60.6% hard-hit rate in 122 plate appearances versus left-handers in 2019. In 2020, he ended with a 50.0% hard-hit rate and .383 wOBA in the split. Also, this game being at Yankee Stadium helps Judge's outlook as he owns a career wOBA of .447 at home.
We project Judge for 0.43 homers today, the second-most among all hitters.
Chris Wassel is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Chris Wassel also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username chriswassel. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
