MLB Betting Guide: Opening Day
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies
Over 7.0 (-128): 5-Star Rating out of 5
Our model sees a ton of value on this line. We project the final score to be 4.95-4.93 in favor of the Atlanta Braves. That's a total of 9.88 runs -- nearly three runs more than the 7.0-run total.
The pitching matchup is Max Fried against Aaron Nola. Both guys are good hurlers, but you can poke some holes in them. Nola had a 4.14 SIERA last season and allowed a 41.9% hard-hit rate in 2019. Fried is coming off a career-worst 4.32 SIERA in 2020 along with a career-low 22.3% strikeout rate. FanGraphs' team WAR projections expect both of these offenses to be solid, giving the Braves the 6th-most offensive WAR and ranking the Phils 14th.
Sharp money is on the over. Per oddsFire, 65% of the bets but 74% of the money is taking the over. This is our lone five-star bet of Opening Day.
Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins
Over 7.0 (-122): 3-Star Rating out of 5
This is another over our algorithm likes. We're getting Tyler Glasnow versus Sandy Alcantara, so the Tampa Bay Rays should be the team doing the heavy lifting to get us to the over.
Alcantara had a 4.39 SIERA in 2020, but his SIERA was 5.28 in 2019, his lone full season. Left-handed hitters got to him for a .369 wOBA last year, and the Rays will likely load up their lineup with a bunch of lefties, including mashers Austin Meadows and Brandon Lowe. The Miami Marlins' bullpen is a weak spot, too, as FanGraphs projects Miami with the sixth-fewest reliever WAR.
Glasnow is a bad dude -- 28.5% career strikeout rate -- but one of his few blemishes is the longball. Glasnow permitted 1.73 homers per nine innings in 2020 and has allowed 1.29 per nine for his career. One ill-timed dinger could help us get to eight runs.
We project a total of 8.47 runs to be scored in this one and have it ranked as one of the better bets of the day.
