3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 4/8/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
J.D. Martinez to Hit A Home Run (+320)
J.D. Martinez is swinging a hot bat right now as he is off to a .440 (11 for 25) start in the first week for the Boston Red Sox. Not only that, Martinez has banged out a couple of home runs, as well. Was last year's seven home runs in 54 games a fluke? The early going seems to point to yes.
Either way, Martinez looks to be back and better than ever.
Martinez gets to face Matt Harvey this afternoon. Harvey escaped a good deal of trouble in his first start for Baltimore, going 4 2/3 innings while striking out four and allowing two runs on six hits. Boston's bats figure to be a little more lethal in Camden Yards today.
Our projections have Martinez at 0.26 home runs, which is tied for 13th on the slate.
Lance Lynn 7+ Strikeouts/Chicago White Sox to Win (+190)
When Lance Lynn takes the mound, he usually gives his team a solid six-plus innings. His opening performance against the Los Angeles Angels was a little bit off as Lynn did not get out of the fifth inning. He walked two and gave up six hits along with two earned runs.
There were two bright spots as Lynn struck out six batters and was allowed to toss 99 pitches. Lynn has been a workhorse the recent seasons, and it looks like the Chicago White Sox are going to let him rack up pitches, as well.
Lynn has amassed strikeout rates of 25.9% and 28.1% the last two campaigns. The Kansas City Royals, meanwhile, were around the league average in terms of team strikeout rate in 2020, posting the 14th-highest mark (24.0%).
We project Lynn for 6.9 punchouts today, which is right at this line, and if you pair that with a White Sox win -- we project Chicago to win 61.5% of the time -- you can get +190 odds. That's worth a roll of the dice to me.
Trevor Story to Hit a Home Run (+270)
Trevor Story has been ice cold to start the season for the Colorado Rockies
Story has struck out six times in just 27 at-bats. He has five hits and no home runs. On the other hand, the shortstop does have a hard-hit rate of 47.6% in the early going, which is close to the level he was at in 2018 and 2019, when he hit 30-plus homers in both of those campaigns.
The best news for the Rockies' infielder is that Colorado is at home versus Merrill Kelly. Kelly had a rough outing in his 2021 debut, allowing a hard-hit rate of 63.6% along with a home run and three runs in four innings versus the San Diego Padres. Kelly gave up a 43.3% hard-hit rate in 31 1/3 innings in 2020.
We project Story for 0.37 home runs today, the most among all hitters.
Chris Wassel is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Chris Wassel also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username chriswassel. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
