MLB

3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Monday 4/26/21

Chris Wassel  —  @ChrisWasselDFS Apr 26th, 2021
We take a look at some props from the Monday night games. Where can we find the most betting value?

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.

Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

Zach Plesac Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+142)

The over is possibly worth looking at Monday evening. Zach Plesac is getting a juicy +132 to strike out six batters or more and goes up against Minnesota at home.

Though Plesac was a disaster in his two outings against the Chicago White Sox, he was much better in his two against the Detroit Tigers. Plesac allowed just two earned runs in 13 innings pitched and struck out 10 batters in all.

That second start against Detroit was an indicator of what we may eventually rely on, as he threw 70 strikes on 97 pitches. His strike percentage is 67% on the season through four starts.

He takes on the Twins at home, which is a more palatable matchup. Our projections are rather bullish on Plesac today, forecasting him for 6.11 strikeouts but only projecting him for 5.46 innings pitched. Plesac should be able to get to six or more innings in what could be more of a pitcher's duel early on.

The over on Jose Berrios is something we would consider, as well, but at a not quite as lucrative -128. If this goes to -130 or worse, then pass.

DJ LeMahieu to Get 2+ Hits (+145)

The New York Yankees face Matt Harvey and the Baltimore Orioles this evening from Camden Yards. There is nothing like Camden Yards to cure a struggling offense -- especially the Yankees.

DJ LeMahieu has struggled out of the blocks in April while batting just .260. Last year, he led the AL batting a whopping .364. The full season before that, the infielder hit .327.

Harvey is averaging fewer than five innings per start and the Baltimore bullpen is not much better. Throw out his 5.12 ERA for a second and consider his hard-hit rate was 44.1% the last two seasons with an exit velocity averaging near 91 mph. His 2021 rates are 36.8% and 88.5 mph, respectively.

The allure of Baltimore's pitching staff, especially the former Dark Knight, is too appealing to pass up on LeMahieu getting a multi-hit game on Monday night.

Zack Wheeler Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-102)

Let's try to get another kick at the St. Louis Cardinals' can, so to speak.

Zack Wheeler is pitching pretty well for Philadelphia. He is averaging 9.9 K/9 on the season and has struck out six or more batters in three of his four starts. That is actually up from his 8.6 K/9 rate career-wise.

Wheeler is now up to a career-high 26.3% strikeout rate, which is even higher than his 2018 and 2019 rates. St. Louis ranks right around where they did last year and has a strikeout rate of 24.2%. The Philadelphia starting pitcher is projected for 35-plus fantasy points today. That includes 5.96 strikeouts and the expectation to go about six-plus innings or so.

If the Phillies' starter can get through the sixth inning, he should easily hit the over this evening. At even money, this is not a bad flip of the coin tonight.