MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 4/27/21

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.

For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox

Over 8.0 (-115): 3-Star Rating out of 5

Let's get this out of the way right from the jump -- Lucas Giolito is probably going to mow through the Detroit Tigers. For DFS purposes, Giolito is the slate's top-ranked hurler, according to our projections. But our numbers do have the Tigers plating a few runs, and we think the offense of the Chicago White Sox goes off against Jose Urena.

In 129 2/3 innings since the start of 2019, Urena has struggled to a 5.02 SIERA and 17.0% strikeout rate while giving up a 39.3% hard-hit rate. Looking at only his 2021 stats, he's walking 12.9% of hitters. A Chicago offense that sits fifth in wOBA (.330) should give him fits.

There really aren't too many positives I can point to for the Tigers' offense in their clash with Giolito. Detroit is dead last in wOBA (.276) and has the highest strikeout rate (28.9%). They are who we thought they were going to be. But baseball is weird, and with our model pegging Chicago to score 6.14 runs, we shouldn't need too much from Detroit to get to the over.

We project a 6.14-3.54 victory for the White Sox. That's a total of 9.68 runs -- well over the 8.0-run line. We forecast the over to win out at a 60.0% rate.

Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Pirates

Over 8.0 (-112): 2-Star Rating out of 5

Our model likes the over on this 8.0-run total. The pitching matchup gives us Jake Junis against Tyler Anderson, so while neither of these offenses are all that amazing, the pitchers taking the hill aren't that good, either.

Anderson, a lefty, has been surprisingly competent in 2021 for the Pittsburgh Pirates, but we're talking about a sample of 20 2/3 innings. In 80 1/3 frames over 2019 and 2020, he pitched to a 5.43 SIERA with a 17.5% strikeout rate. He should have trouble with a Kansas City Royals lineup that has some righties who thrive with the platoon advantage -- namely Salvador Perez, Whit Merrifield and Jorge Soler.

Much of what I just said about Anderson also applies to Junis, who is off to a good start this campaign. But in 200 2/3 innings across 2019 and 2020, Junis owned a 4.65 SIERA while allowing a 41.7% hard-hit rate.

Our algorithm projects a final score of 4.65-4.37 in favor of KC. That's a total of 9.02 runs, and we think the over hits 54.2% of the time.