3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 5/6/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Madison Bumgarner Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-104)
Betting the over here feels like a risky proposition, but I like Madison Bumgarner to get six-plus strikeouts against the Miami Marlins.
The Arizona Diamondbacks' lefty has shown some of his old form of late. He has struck out 13 batters across during his past two outings, yielding just one earned run in that time.
For the season, Bumgarner owns a 25.0% strikeout rate and 12.0% swinging-strike rate. Those are way better than his clips from 2020 -- 15.8% and 7.5%, respectively -- so time will tell how legit they are. This matchup should help him generate whiffs, though. He takes on the Marlins on the road, and Miami's 25.7% strikeout rate is the eighth-highest.
Something else that can help him get six-plus strikeouts is that Arizona has been letting him shoulder a solid workload as MadBum has thrown at least 98 pitches in three of his last five starts.
Mike Trout to Hit a Home Run (+200)
The Los Angeles Angels' best hitter gets +200 odds to go yard tonight against opener Collin McHugh and the Tampa Bay Rays' bullpen. Those are short odds, and if it dips to under +200, you may want to pivot to Jared Walsh (+210) instead.
So far this season, Trout has eight home runs in 88 at-bats. He is hitting nearly .400 and has a slugging percentage of .761. His current 45.8% hard-hit rate is actually a career-best mark, as is his .524 wOBA.
We have Trout projected for 0.24 homers, and I like him to go deep once against the plethora of Rays hurlers he'll see.
Andrew Heaney Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-112)
The under on Andrew Heaney's strikeouts prop looks like a solid wager.
Heaney can get punchouts and is a good pitcher. But plugging the under has a lot to do with how long he can pitch as he is averaging fewer than five innings per start and has pitched past the sixth inning just once in 2021.
On the flip side, the Los Angeles Angels have let him toss 90 and 101 pitches in his last two outings, so the problem for Heaney is mostly him own inefficiency. It's resulted him having more than six strikeouts in just two of five starts despite a dazzling 35.1% strikeout rate.
Our model projects Heaney for 6.3 strikeouts today against the Tampa Bay Rays.
