MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 5/12/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals
Over 8.0 (-115): 3-Star Rating out of 5
Our model's favorite bets are all overs for today's slate, and so that's what I'll highlight. The Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals, who find themselves in opposite tiers of expected wOBA this season: the Nationals are 9th, and the Phillies are 21st.
The Phillies' matchup with Jon Lester, then, sort of balances out. Lester, since the start of 2020, has a 5.03 SIERA and a lowly 15.7% strikeout rate. The Phillies' 27.5% strikeout rate as a team is second-worst this season, so this matchup can work for them.
As for the Nationals' bats, they'll have a tougher go against Zack Wheeler, who has a 3.87 SIERA since the start of 2020 albeit with a non-threatening 21.7% strikeout rate. He limits walks (5.9%) and hard contact (24.7%), however.
As mentioned, the Nationals are top-10 in expected wOBA and are also top-10 in expected slugging.
Our model anticipates a median projection of 10.5 runs in this game, making the over appear as 66.6% likely to hit.
Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers
Over 8.0 (-115): 3-Star Rating out of 5
This is kind of a similar story, as the Kansas City Royals are 10th in expected wOBA and the Detroit Tigers are...last. They also strike out at the MLB's highest rate (29.2%).
Danny Duffy has sit down 25.2% of opposing hitters since the start of 2020 but is basically exactly league average in called-strike-plus-whiff rate (28.0%; league average being 28.1%).
The bulk of the runs are expected to come from the Royals, who are projected to put up 5.1 tonight on Casey Mize. Mize has notched just a 17.9% strikeout rate over his 274 Major League batters faced in his career and ultimately holds a SIERA of 4.97.
Of our 25 most comparable games to this one historically, the 5 strongest predictors hit the over, and 8 of the top 10 also did. Also, 58% of the money is on this game to go over.
Oakland Athletics at Boston Red Sox
Over 9.0 (-120): 4-Star Rating out of 5
The Oakland Athletics will have their work cut out for them against the 5-0 Eduardo Rodriguez (who has a 3.50 SIERA since the start of 2020), but the Boston Red Sox will be facing James Kaprielian, a 27-year-old with 17 batters faced in the bigs who is making his first MLB start.
The once-touted prospect doesn't have a lot of work even in the minors but did put up strong strikeout numbers there.
But with this game, we're getting two teams that are top-12 in expected wOBA (Boston is 4th and Oakland is 11th), and Boston actually leads the MLB in expected slugging comfortably.
Helping with the Oakland side of things is that they have a 116 wRC+ against lefties this season to rank them sixth in the MLB.
Our model is rating the over as 63.5% likely to occur, which is tied to an expected return of 28.6%.
