MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 5/19/21
Which MLB games offer betting value on Soccer odd? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds
San Francisco -1.5 (+136): 1 Star out of 5
The San Francisco Giants have won the first two games from the Cincinnati Reds this series, and they have the advantage again in the pitching matchup on Wednesday night. Kevin Gausman goes for the Giants, and he has a sparkling 1.84 ERA and 2.57 FIP. His expected ERA is slightly higher at 3.13, but even so, he is clearly performing at a very high level.
Wade Miley takes the hill for the Reds, and he has a 3.69 ERA and 3.59 expected ERA so far this season to go along with a 3.34 FIP. Miley is having a good season but not quite on the same level as Gausman. The Giants are also ahead of the Reds in bullpen ERA (4.38 compared to 5.00), so they should have a major pitching advantage in this game.
Our model gives the Giants a 43.77% chance to cover the runline of 1.5, and that is good enough to make this a one-star bet given the plus odds.
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+158): 1 Star out of 5
This game features a good pitching matchup between Trevor Rogers and Zach Eflin, both of whom are off to fantastic starts this season. Rogers boasts a 1.84 ERA with a league-leading 2.43 FIP, while Eflin has a 3.86 ERA and 2.96 FIP.
Eflin is outperforming his ERA by over half a run according to expected ERA, as he boasts an expected ERA of 3.24. Rogers has a strong expected ERA of 2.73, but the gap between the two pitchers is very small if we look at expected stats as opposed to actual stats.
Our model gives the Philadelphia Phillies a 44.02% chance to cover the runline of 1.5, and at +158, those odds are good enough to make this a one-star bet.
Cleveland Indians vs. Los Angeles Angels
Cleveland Indians +1.5 (-192): 1 Star out of 5
Cleveland Indians comes into this game with a 22-18 record compared to the 18-23 Los Angeles Angels and yet they are listed as major underdogs since they are facing Shohei Ohtani.
Ohtani has been brilliant with both the bat and on the mound this season, and he has a 2.10 ERA to go with a 3.60 FIP. However, Ohtani has only exceeded five innings in one of his four starts this season. He has had trouble with control (7.0 BB/9), limiting his ability to pitch deep into games.
This is problematic for the Angels, who are 26th in the league in bullpen ERA at 5.06 and will likely need almost half the game filled by their bullpen.
The Cleveland Indians start Aaron Civale, who has a 3.40 ERA and 3.64 expected ERA through his first eight starts of the season. The good news for Civale is that he is backed by the best bullpen in baseball, as the Indians lead the league in bullpen ERA at 2.60.
Our model gives the Indians a 67.87% chance to cover the runline of 1.5, and we like it another betting option for Wednesday.
