MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 5/20/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies
Over 8.0 (-106): 4-Star Rating out of 5
Sandy Alcantara and Vincent Velasquez are squaring off today in Philadelphia, and our model has over 8.0 runs as the best bet of the night, giving it a four-star rating. It's the lone bet of the evening with more than a two-star rating.
Velazquez is doing Velazquez things so far this year. He's getting punchouts (28.9% strikeout rate), but he's walking a ton of hitters (14.8% walk rate) while giving up 2.15 homers per nine innings. He has gone six innings only once this season, so we should see a good amount of a Philadelphia Phillies bullpen that owns the 10th-worst ERA (4.30).
Alcantara has been really good so far this year, pitching to a 3.85 SIERA and 24.2% strikeout rate. It's hard to find many negatives in his 2021 numbers. But he wasn't quite as good last season (4.39 SIERA and 22.7% strikeout rate), and Citizens Bank Park skews toward offense.
Our projections have Philly winning 5.05-4.91, which amounts to a total of 9.96 runs, and we think the over hits 62.3% of the time. The betting public agrees. Sharp money is on the over, per oddsFire, as 46% of the bets but 64% of the money is backing the over.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Moneyline (-188): 2-Star Rating out of 5
Our algorithm falls in line with oddsmakers in most spots outside of the above bet, but there is a sliver of value on the Atlanta Braves.
We're getting Drew Smyly versus Wil Crowe, which gives a big edge to Atlanta. Crowe holds a 4.95 SIERA, 19.1% strikeout rate and 11.2% walk rate in 20 2/3 frames this year. Smyly, meanwhile, has a 3.83 SIERA and 27.6% strikeout rate since the start of 2020.
Plus, Atlanta is the better all-around squad. While the Braves have underwhelmed so far this year, their run differential of -17 is miles better than the Pittsburgh Pirates' NL-worst clip of -50.
The Braves are big -188 moneyline favorites, but our numbers say that's not big enough. At a -188 line, Atlanta's implied win odds are 65.3%, and we project them to win 70.1% of the time. We rate taking the Braves on the moneyline as a two-star wager.
