FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Friday 5/21/21
Fridays always have large slates, but this week, we've got every single team in action for the main slate, so this should be a fun one to tackle today. As expected, this gives us plenty of ways to go at pitcher, and Coors Field headlines the stacking side of things.
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Let's check out the top options on tonight's main slate.
Pitchers
Trevor Bauer ($11,800): We have a number of talented, high-salaried hurlers on the mound tonight, but the tricky thing is that most of them have less than ideal matchups. Bauer is the lone exception against San Francisco, though, as the Giants' active roster comes in with a league-high 28.3% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching. They also have a 101 wRC+ in the split, so they're hardly pushovers, but the upside here is delectable for a guy coming in with a 2.74 SIERA, 35.5% strikeout rate, and 6.5% walk rate. What also helps the Dodgers righty stand out is his colossal workload -- Bauer has hit exactly 113 pitches in three of his past four starts.
Tyler Glasnow ($11,000): No one on the slate can compete with Glasnow's 38.6% strikeout rate. The trouble is his matchup versus the Blue Jays, who carry a 106 wRC+ and unappealing 22.6% strikeout rate versus righties. That clearly puts Glasnow behind Bauer overall, but we shouldn't completely ignore a hurler with Glasnow's ceiling in tournaments, as he's posted slate-breaking scores of 75 and 61 points this year. When the Tampa Bay ace faced Toronto earlier this season, he allowed 5 earned runs in 6.0 innings -- showing the danger of this spot -- but also racked up 10 punchouts. Also, it's worth noting that while Glasnow will struggle with walks occasionally, this isn't a bad spot in that regard because the Blue Jays rank just 25th in walk rate versus righties.
Mike Minor ($7,600): In terms of value, Aaron Nola and Ian Anderson are intriguing at their respective salaries. But Nola is in an unenviable matchup against Boston, and even though Anderson is in a cupcake spot versus Pittsburgh, they aren't a plus opponent when it comes to strikeouts. Although Minor isn't on the same level as those guys, his salary is even lower, and his matchup is the gift that keeps on giving in the Detroit Tigers. The sample size for team numbers versus lefties is still on the smaller side, so keep that in mind, but it's still telling just how awful the Tigers have been in the split, checking in with an egregious 59 wRC+ and 33.3% strikeout rate. Minor's 24.4% strikeout rate is good enough to be in play here, and when he faced Detroit in April, he racked up nine strikeouts for one of his best outings of the season.
Others to Consider: Aaron Nola ($9,000), Ian Anderson ($8,800)
Stacks
Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies: Part of the reason you might be tempted to take some of the value at pitcher is due to the high implied totals we're seeing at Coors Field. Not only do tonight's batters get the usual Coors boost, but we're expecting strong winds blowing out tonight. The Rockies boast a slate-high 6.28 mark, while the Diamondbacks come in next at 5.22.
Starting with Colorado, they're up against Seth Frankoff, who did little to inspire confidence in his first 2021 start, allowing 2 earned runs with 4 walks and 4 strikeouts in 4.2 innings versus Washington. Overall, we don't have much to go on at the Major League level (9.1 career innings), but Frankoff only produced a strikeout rate of around 22% from 2018-19 in the KBO, and his Triple-A track record isn't particularly noteworthy.
Trevor Story ($4,300) may not be putting up Trevor Story numbers yet, but he's still the top hitter in this lineup, while Ryan McMahon ($3,900) and C.J. Cron ($3,300) are probably the best other power bats. But considering both the matchup and hitting environment, just about everyone is worthy of inclusion in stacks, including Dom Nunez ($2,500), who's a classic boom-or-bust punt with a 12.8% barrel rate (78th percentile) paired with an awful 41.2% strikeout rate.
Meanwhile, the D-backs aren't usually an exciting offense to stack, but they match up well against German Marquez. That's because they can roll out perhaps an entire lineup of lefties and switch-hitters, which is precisely how you want to attack Marquez.
While he continues to show positive underlying marks versus righties, when it comes to lefty sticks, Marquez is producing a middling 20.2% strikeout rate and 14.3% walk rate. He's also inducing a 61.0% ground-ball rate in the split, which isn't great for home runs, but the lack of strikeouts and extra free passes should give Arizona plenty of opportunities to pile up the runs.
Eduardo Escobar ($3,700) and his high fly-ball rate (52.7%) is perfect for this spot, and the recent return of Ketel Marte ($4,100) doesn't hurt the overall potential of this lineup. Most of the other bats come in at reasonable salaries, too, with David Peralta ($3,600) being the only other batter with a salary over $3,200. If he's in the lineup, Daulton Varsho ($2,500) is a potential power/speed combo with a solid barrel rate and sprint speed in limited time.
Washington Nationals: After the Coors teams, the Nationals have one of the higher implied totals (4.78), and they have loads of potential versus Jorge Lopez. It's still looking like the same old Lopez this season, with an ERA over 6.00 and balls flying into the outfield seats at a rate of 2.12 per nine innings. Although he's getting more grounders versus lefties this season, I'm not buying that over a small sample from someone who's been pummeled by them for 1.98 home runs per nine over his career.
Add in a pedestrian strikeout rate, and it's another night where we can look to Juan Soto ($4,200), Josh Bell ($3,500), and Kyle Schwarber ($3,500) as a power lefty trio. Lopez isn't anything special versus righties, either, so Starlin Castro ($2,400) and Yan Gomes ($2,900) can be solid salary-savers. Of course, Trea Turner ($4,200) is always great to include when possible.
Milwaukee Brewers: Admittedly, it feels unsettling to mention on offense like the Brewers on a slate this size, but I feel like things really open up after these first three, and you can talk yourself into any number of possible stacks.
But that should spread out roster percentages across the other teams, and a team like Milwaukee is unlikely to garner much attention to begin with. Yet they actually have a respectable 4.67 implied total and an enticing matchup versus Jeff Hoffman at the offense-enhancing Great American Ball Park.
Hoffman is difficult to pin down because of his prior service in Colorado, but he's sure looking like a guy to attack with left-handed batters. Against them in 2021, he's showing a ghastly 6.41 xFIP, 11.7% strikeout rate, and 15.6% walk rate. Despite not allowing many home runs yet, a 34.0% ground-ball rate in the split should also pique our interest, and it's not like he's preventing hard contact.
The return of Christian Yelich ($3,900) breathes new life into this offense, and a hodgepodge of lefties in Kolten Wong ($3,300), Dan Vogelbach ($2,700), Omar Narvaez ($2,600), and Travis Shaw ($2,500) give us enough to work with in an otherwise low-salaried stack.
Others to Consider: Tampa Bay Rays, Kansas City Royals, San Diego Padres, Minnesota Twins, Chicago Cubs