5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for Tuesday 5/25/21
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-salaried slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-salaried NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-salaried play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's 12-game main slate, which locks at 7:05 PM Eastern.
Joe Musgrove, SP, San Diego Padres ($8,400)
Among many others, tonight's slate features aces like Jacob deGrom ($12,000), Max Scherzer ($11,000), and Corbin Burnes ($10,200), but it's Joe Musgrove who might just be the best bang for your buck.
Musgrove's breakout has been very much real this season. Among those with at least 40 innings pitched, the 28-year-old ranks fourth with a 2.61 SIERA, and he also finds himself inside the top 12 in strikeout rate (34.7%), strikeout-to-walk rate (29.2%), WHIP (0.86), and xFIP (2.47), according to FanGraphs. All of that has resulted in some rock-solid fantasy production, as Musgrove has racked up outputs of 52, 58, 64, and 67 FanDuel points in four of his nine starts this season.
Musgrove also gets the benefit of a mouth-watering matchup tonight. On the season, the Milwaukee Brewers' wRC+ of 78 against righties is second-worst in the league, and their 26.3% strikeout rate ranks sixth-highest. In a matchup against the Crew in April, Musgrove struck out 13 batters in 7 innings while only ceding 2 earned runs. Not too shabby.
Jonathan Villar, 2B/3B/SS, New York Mets ($2,600)
Fading the entire New York Mets lineup when deGrom is on the mound is not the worst idea considering that the concept of hitting becomes foreign to them when he pitches, nevertheless, they are in a great spot tonight. New York will be going up against Kyle Freeland in his season debut for the Colorado Rockies.
In 175 innings from 2019 through 2020, Freeland posted a 16.1% strikeout rate, a 5.45 FIP, and a 1.51 WHIP, all while surrendering a whopping 1.7 home runs per nine innings. Yikes.
That brings us to Jonathan Villar. While the free-swinging utilityman will never hit for a high average, he still very much has the ability to rack up fantasy production. The speedster has eclipsed 9 FanDuel points in 10 of his last 17 games, and that includes putting up more than 12 eight times during that stretch. Villar's also had great success in a limited sample against Freeland, generating five hits (including a homer) and a free pass in seven plate appearances.
If you'd like to venture even further down the totem pole, Jose Peraza has been getting plenty of at-bats for the banged-up Mets recently and should benefit from the platoon advantage.
Gleyber Torres, SS/2B, New York Yankees ($2,700)
According to numberFire's Matchup Heatmap, the New York Yankees' implied total of 5.10 tonight ranks second-highest on the entire slate. We'll definitely want some exposure to that, and we can start by rostering Gleyber Torres.
Torres has been one of New York's hottest hitters of late. Over his last 19 games, the 24-year-old has hit for a .357 average while getting on base at an impressive .430 clip. If you shrink that sample to just the month of May, Torres has gone full scorched earth. In 53 plate appearances since the month began, Torres has a .955 OPS to go with 14 RBI.
The Yankees will be going up against lefty Steven Matz, who actually hasn't been as bad as his 4.69 ERA might imply (he possesses a respectable 3.84 SIERA). Nevertheless, Torres should be able to make the most of the platoon advantage. For his career, Torres has posted a .242 ISO versus lefties.
Amed Rosario, SS/OF, Cleveland Indians ($2,400)
We've already talked about a current Mets shortstop, but now we'll talk about a former one in Amed Rosario.
In 62 plate appearances against southpaws this season, Rosario has raked to the tune of a .328 average, .371 on-base percentage, and a 140 wRC+. It's not just this season -- since 2019, Rosario has a .316 average, .360 on-pase percentage, and a .859 OPS against lefties.
Tonight, Rosario won't just face any lefty. He'll be going up against the ever-so-generous Tarik Skubal. So far this campaign, Skubal sports a 4.82 SIERA while surrendering an insane 2.84 dingers per nine innings.
Rosario's bat has also come alive in a big way as of late. Over his last 20 games (19 starts), the 25-year-old is hitting .321 with 8 extra-base hits, 8 runs-batted-in, 11 runs scored, and 4 steals. That's resulted in him trumping 12 FanDuel points 10 times during that stretch.
Brandon Crawford, SS, San Francisco Giants ($3,000)
I know, a salary of $3,000 doesn't exactly scream "value", but it's hard not to love the spot Brandon Crawford is in tonight.
The San Francisco Giants will be squaring off against the Arizona Diamondbacks and righty Corbin Martin tonight. So far, Martin's 24.1 innings in the majors have been...bad. Martin has ceded a whopping 10 dongs in his limited action, which equates to an eye-gauging 3.7 homers per nine frames.
Meanwhile, Crawford has been one of the hottest hitters in all of baseball during the month of May. In 15 starts this month, the veteran shortstop has swatted 7 dingers while driving in 19. The 24-year-old has been on a power surge against right-handed pitchers since the start of last year's pandemic-shortened season. In 264 plate appearance against righties during that stretch, Crawford has posted an ISO of .265.
