MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 5/26/21
Which MLB games offer betting value on Soccer odd? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals
Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (-154): 4 Stars out of 5
The Cincinnati Reds and Washington Nationals are both 4 games under .500 but the Reds should have a major advantage in this game due to the starting pitching matchup. The Nationals will start Joe Ross, who has a 5.72 ERA, 5.96 FIP, and 5.67 expected ERA through his first 8 starts of the season.
The Reds start Jeff Hoffman who has posted a 4.31 ERA, 4.30 FIP, and has an expected ERA of 5.11 in his first 9 starts. This gives the Reds a slight advantage in the pitching matchup and they certainly hold a major advantage offensive, as they have scored 5.04 runs per game, compared to just 4.02 runs per game for the Nationals.
Our model gives the Reds a 72.97% chance to cover the runline of 1.5 and we like this as a 4-star bet.
Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox
Atlanta Braves +1.5 (-182): 2 Stars out of 5
The Atlanta Braves were predicted to be one of the top teams in the NL before the season started and although they got off to a slow start they have now won 4 consecutive games and are closing in on a first place in the NL East.
The Boston Red Sox are averaging 5.10 runs compared to 4.92 for the Braves, but considering the Braves play most of their games without the DH this makes the discrepancy almost nonexistent. Both teams rank 3rd in their leagues in runs scored per game so the offensive output has been similar so far this year. With all things even, the Braves would be the better bet since they are the underdogs.
Our model gives Atlanta a 69.67% chance to cover the runline of 1.5, making it a 2-star bet.
Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+102): 1 Star out of 5
The Tampa Bay Rays had won 11 straight games until their 2-1 loss to the Kansas City Royals yesterday and they start their ace Tyler Glasnow in an attempt to start another winning streak. Glasnow is one of the best pitchers in baseball and he has a 2.90 ERA and an even better 2.74 expected ERA in 62 innings this season.
The Rays have a major advantage in the starting pitching matchup, as the Royals are starting Mike Minor who has a 5.14 ERA and 4.20 expected ERA in 49 starts this season. Minor may be outperforming his true ERA at the moment but even so, he is nowhere near the level of pitcher that Tyler Glasnow is.
Our model likes the Rays to win easily, with a projected final score of 5.34-3.67. Our projections give the Rays a 52.65% chance to cover the runline, making it a 1-star bet.
