MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 5/27/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics
Over 7.5 (-118): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
This is a good pitching matchup between Shohei Ohtani and Chris Bassitt, but there are some reasons to back the over.
For as good as Ohtani has been on the mound -- 2.37 ERA and 34.9% strikeout rate -- there are some warts in his profile. The most glaring is a 17.1% walk rate, which is the big reason his SIERA is 4.13. He also has been kept on a short leash, throwing more than 88 pitches just once (92). He's worked past the fifth inning just one time, so we should see a good amount of a Los Angeles Angels bullpen that has the seventh-worst SIERA (4.05).
Bassitt has made a sizable leap in 2021, pitching to a 3.55 SIERA and 25.7% strikeout rate in 61 frames. In nearly the same size of sample in 2020 (63 innings), he had a 4.46 SIERA and 21.1% strikeout rate. While Bassitt's profile is pretty great, he's going to be followed by a shoddy Oakland 'pen that is third-worst in SIERA (4.23).
Both of these offenses are above-average in wOBA. The Angels are 9th (.319) while the A's are 12th (.317).
We have this game being a 5.05-4.15 win for Oakland. That's a total of 9.20 runs, and we project the over to win out 63.7% of the time. It's one of the night's top bets, per our model.
Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox
Over 9.0 (-108): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
We project the Chicago White Sox to do the heavy lifting here to get us to the over.
The Pale Hose are taking on Bruce Zimmermann, who owns a 4.56 career SIERA with an 18.1% strikeout rate. He should be in for a rough outing against a Chicago offense that ranks fourth in wOBA (.328) and second in wRC+ (112).
We have the White Sox plating exactly 6.0 runs. That means we don't need too much from the Baltimore Orioles versus Dylan Cease.
Cease is breaking out this year, posting a 4.08 SIERA, 29.0% strikeout rate and 14.5% swinging-strike rate. He is, however, still walking plenty of hitters (12.4% walk rate) and allowing a lot of fly balls (41.8% fly-ball rate). He's due to give up some more bombs as his 6.5% homer-to-fly-ball rate is well below is career mark of 16.5%.
Our algorithm projects a 6.00-4.50 win for Chicago. That's 1.5 runs over the total, and we have the over hitting 66.7% of the time.
