5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for Wednesday 6/2/21

With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.

An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-salaried slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-salaried NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.

That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-salaried play completely is somewhat unique.

Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's eight-game main slate, which locks at 7:05 PM Eastern.

Jordan Montgomery, SP, New York Yankees ($7,500)

The only pitcher with a salary in the five figures tonight is Alek Manoah ($10,000), who happens to be making just his second big league start. If you choose to pass on Manoah or Walker Buehler ($9,700), the next most expensive pitcher sits at $8,500. In other words, you'll have plenty of salary to stack your hitters tonight, and it's just a matter of which lower-salaried pitcher we should target. For me, that pitcher is Jordan Montgomery.

For the fourth time this season, Montgomery will be going up against a Tampa Bay Rays team that has been anything but stellar versus southpaws this season. In that split, Tampa has a 30.7% strikeout rate, which is second to only the Detroit Tigers. In his last two starts against this squad, Montgomery has whiffed seven and nine batters, respectively.

Montgomery enters tonight's outing with an ERA of 4.22, though his 3.76 SIERA and 3.83 xFIP imply that he's pitched better than that so far. The lefty sports a 24.7% punch-out rate to go with a 6.0% walk rate, both of which are respectable numbers. The 28-year-old has 52 and 58 FanDuel points in two of his last four games, with the former coming against the Rays.

Ozzie Albies, 2B, Atlanta Braves ($3,100)

It's hard to picture a player with a salary over $3,000 as a "value" play, but that's exactly what Ozzie Albies is tonight, especially considering that you won't have to break the bank at pitcher.

According to numberFire's Matchup Heat Map, the Atlanta Braves have an implied total of 5.49 tonight, which is comfortably the highest of any non-Coors teams on this slate. Atlanta will be taking on the Washington Nationals and Jon Lester, which should have their hitters salivating.

This season has been a struggle for the veteran lefty. Through six starts, Lester carries a 4.91 ERA, and his 4.84 SIERA doesn't exactly make him look any better. The 37-year-old has also managed just a 17.7% strikeout rate thus far.

Meanwhile, the switch-hitting Albies has been bashing lefties ever since he made it to the Show in 2017. In 492 career plate appearances from the right side of the plate, Albies boasts a .340 average, .953 OPS, .243 ISO, and a measly 13.6% strikeout rate, according to FanGraphs.

The 24-year-old has also been on fire recently, amassing 6 extra-base hits, 10 runs scored, 10 RBI, and a 1.159 OPS over his last eight games.

Trevor Larnach, OF, Minnesota Twins ($2,500)

The Minnesota Twins will be squaring off against Matt Harvey and the Baltimore Orioles today, which means they should be one of the top stacks on the slate. Trevor Larnach is certainly a worthwhile inclusion in those stacks.

Harvey's pitching hasn't been anything to write home about this season, as he possesses a 6.84 ERA and 5.01 xERA. In recent seasons, lefties, in particular, have raked against the 32-year-old. Since 2017, opposite-handed hitters have hit at a .295 clip versus Harvey, who has managed just a 16.8% strikeout rate while ceding 2.2 dingers per nine frames in that split.

That makes Alex Kirilloff ($3,000) and the more affordable Larnach excellent plays tonight.

Ryan Zimmerman, 1B, Washington Nationals ($2,300)

Starlin Castro, 2B, Washington Nationals ($2,200)

No pitcher on tonight's slate is surrendering more round-trippers per nine innings than Drew Smyly, who is giving up 2.76 of them. That puts the Nats firmly in play tonight, and there's plenty of value to be had by rostering Ryan Zimmerman and/or Starlin Castro.

Smyly getting smashed is nothing new. In 182.2 innings since the start of 2019, the 31-year-old has given up an average of 2.3 dongs per nine innings. Smyly's Statcast page is a hitter's dream, as he ranks in the 28th percentile or worse in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, barrel rate, and strikeout rate. Yikes.

That plays right into the wheelhouse of Zimmerman and Castro, both of whom hit lefties extremely well.

In 321 plate appearances versus left-handed pitchers since 2017, Zimmerman sports a .353 average, 1.037 OPS, and a .273 ISO. During that stretch, Castro is hitting at a .320 clip in that split, though his lack of pop (.151 ISO) makes him less of a priority.