FanDuel Pitching Primer: Tuesday 6/8/21
In daily fantasy baseball, success starts with nailing the starting pitcher spot in your lineup.
When compared to hitters, pitching performance tends to be much more predictable and stable throughout the course of the season. You know what you're getting from a top-level ace when you roster him: probably a dominant effort with only one or two implosions per season. In contrast, even the game's best hitters have days at the plate when they go 0-for-4.
As a result, lineup construction should begin with the starting pitcher. Which pitchers should you consider on today's main slate?
High-Salaried Play
Shane Bieber, Cleveland Indians
At St. Louis Cardinals
FanDuel Salary: $11,500
There are two elite arms on the slate tonight, so how do we pick between Tyler Glasnow and Shane Bieber?
Well, let's take a look at the matchups. Bieber faces a St. Louis Cardinals team that ranks 20th in wOBA (.299) with a 26.2% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. Glasnow faces off with a Washington Nationals squad that's got a far worse team wOBA (.269) in the split but also strikes out a significantly lower clip (24.2%).
With strikeouts being so crucial, I side with Bieber. Our projections do, too, and it's not close as we have him going for 5.9 more FanDuel points than any other pitcher.
Mid-Salaried Play
Sonny Gray, Cincinnati Reds
Vs. Milwaukee Brewers
FanDuel Salary: $8,300
The 2021 season has been a bit up and down for Sonny Gray, but he's recently ramped things up significantly and has an awesome matchup tonight.
The Milwaukee Brewers have inverted their mantra this season. They are loaded with quality arms in Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta, but they are struggling at the dish. Over the last two weeks, they carry a 26.5% strikeout rate and .306 wOBA. They're a really fantastic matchup for DFS.
Over Gray's last 16 2/3 innings pitched, he has fanned 21 batters, and he has a nice ceiling in this spot. Our model projects Gray as the second-best point-per-dollar pitcher.
Low-Salaried Play
Marco Gonzales, Seattle Mariners
At Detroit Tigers
FanDuel Salary: $7,100
It's always a risk to try to save salary at pitcher, and that's especially true tonight with so many good hurlers taking the ball. But if you want to spend down, Marco Gonzales is a decent dart throw.
Returning from an injury, Gonzales was solid in his first outing back on the mound. Can he replicate that success today?
Well, he likely couldn't pick a better team to square up with. Over the last two weeks, the Detroit Tigers own a lowly .293 wOBA with a 27.0% strikeout rate. That certainly makes Gonzales appealing.
I would tread lightly trying to pick a value pitcher tonight, but if you must, Gonzales is at least worth a look.
Matt Kupferle is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Matt Kupferle also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username MKupferle. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
