3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 6/8/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measure a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Michael Pineda Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+120)
The Minnesota Twins' starter is quite a risk on Tuesday, but I like rolling the dice on the over here at a +120 price.
Michael Pineda's average starts have been just over five innings, and his strikeouts-per-nine rate is 9.1. Prior to a dud last time out, Pineda had struck out eight and seven in his last two starts, one of which came against the potent lineup of the Chicago White Sox.
He is facing a New York Yankees team that strikes out at a rate of 25.3% overall and 26.5% on the road. They have fanned the fifth-most times in the American League.
The Yankees have really struggled lately, losing eight of their previous 10 games, so while their lineup could make it a short night for Pineda if they're on, they're certainly not coming into this one in good form.
Giancarlo Stanton to Hit a Home Run (+250)
Giancarlo Stanton to go deep at a +250 price is a good place to look.
Stanton is in the midst of a dry spell, but before getting hurt last month, he was red-hot, hitting five homers in five games between April 20th and May 6th. Since the start of 2020, Stanton owns a 46.6% hard-hit rate.
He's facing the aforementioned Pineda, who has permitted 1.70 dingers per nine this year. He's allowed nine homers across nine starts. And it has been a touch toasty in Minnesota the past several days -- with temperatures in the 90s.
Stanton has the sixth-highest home-run projection (0.31) of the night, according to our model.
Aaron Nola Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+108)
Aaron Nola has a home matchup against the Atlanta Braves. If this game gets off without rain issues, Nola getting at least eight punchouts is an intriguing prop to play given the plus-money odds.
Nola is a much better pitcher at home in Philadelphia. How much better? He has a 31.5% strikeout rate at home and a 23.0% clip on the road. The starter has a 2.35 ERA at Citizens Bank Park. His OPS+ at home is 66, and it's 112 on the road.
Nola has eight or more strikeouts in three of his last six starts. Workload shouldn't be much of a concern as he's thrown 94, 97, 98 and 103 pitches in his past four games.
The Braves are tied for the 10th-highest strikeout rate (25.3%) for the year, and they've struck out 27.3% of the time over the past 14 days.
Our projections have Nola coming in with 7.02 strikeouts across 5.82 innings on Tuesday night. But I'm a little more bullish on his chances and like taking a shot at the +108 price.
