3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 6/15/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measure a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Hyun Jin Ryu Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-118)
Hyun-jin Ryu is going up against the struggling New York Yankees, a team that seemingly cannot hit its way out of a slump.
Ryu has 12 strikeouts in 12 innings against New York this season. He's got a 22.0% strikeout rate overall with a 10.1% swinging-strike rate. While he's allowed nine earned runs in his last 11 2/3 innings pitched, those two starts came against the lefty-mashing lineups of the Houston Astros and Chicago White Sox. The Yankees -- as weird as it may be to say -- just aren't that good offensively.
New York is 19th in wOBA against lefties (.311) with a 23.3% strikeout rate (16th-highest) in the split.
Our model projects Ryu for 5.54 strikeouts, and I like siding with the over on this one.
Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run (+300)
Pete Alonso got off to a slow start this year for the New York Mets, but he is coming out of it. In June, he's got a .386 wOBA and three jacks in 48 plate appearances. He's up to 10 home runs on the season.
Tonight he has a plum matchup versus Chicago Cubs righty Alec Mills. Since the start of 2020, Mills has pitched to a 16.3% strikeout rate and 4.81 SIERA while allowing 1.78 homers per nine innings.
The Mets are an intriguing stacking option, and Alonso could blast a dinger tonight. I like getting him at this +300 number.
Mike Minor Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+138)
It's pretty easy to get excited about this +138 price on Mike Minor's strikeout prop.
He is up against the Detroit Tigers. Detroit is one of the worst offenses in the game, sporting the third-worst wOBA (.294) and highest strikeout rate (27.9%). This is a great matchup for Minor to rack up punchouts.
For the season, Minor has a 3.84 SIERA and 26.6% strikeout rate. He's gotten at least eight strikeouts in three of his past five starts. In two outings against the Tigers this season, Minor has recorded nine and eight strikeouts. He's also got a pretty nice workload, going for 100-plus pitches three times this season, including a season-high 106 last time out.
Minor checks a lot of boxes, and at this +138 price, I am all over him to get eight-plus strikeouts.
