MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 6/22/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Atlanta Braves at New York Mets
Over 7.0 (-122): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Despite a 14-game evening slate, our model rates only one bet as more than a two-star wager. This is that bet.
The pitching matchup is a pretty good one, as we've got Charlie Morton versus Marcus Stroman. While that doesn't immediately make you think of a bunch of runs being scored, our projections have these two teams combining for 8.50 runs -- 1.5 more than the line.
Stroman's numbers are really good in his first full season in Queens. He's pitched to a 3.66 SIERA and 22.2% strikeout rate, with the strikeout rate being a career-best clip. But Stroman has had some luck on his side, as his .262 BABIP is well below his .304 career average. He's up against a Atlanta Braves offense that is 10th in wOBA over the last 30 days (.316).
It's tougher to make a case for the New York Mets to have a lot of success against Morton, who owns a 3.75 SIERA and 26.2% strikeout rate. But once Morton is out of the game, the Mets will take their hacks against a Braves bullpen that sits ninth-worst in SIERA (4.06).
Per our oddsFire tool, there's a sliver of sharp money on the over -- with 58% of the tickets and 62% of the money backing the over. Our model projects a 4.32-4.18 win for the Braves, and we have the over hitting 57.8% of the time.
St. Louis Cardinals at Detroit Tigers
Over 8.5 (-114): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Our model sees value with another over, this time in the matchup between the St. Louis Cardinals and Detroit Tigers. We've got Johan Oviedo and Tarik Skubal taking the hill in this one.
Skubal has made strides from 2020 to 2021, checking in with a 4.09 SIERA and 27.8% strikeout rate. The issue for Skubal today is that the Cards have some right-handed bats who do work versus southpaws -- namely Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Yadier Molina and Tyler O'Neill. On top of that, Detroit's 4.20 bullpen SIERA is the fourth-worst clip.
Oviedo gets a friendly matchup against a Detroit offense that is one of the game's worst, but he hasn't been good this season. Ovideo holds a 4.98 SIERA, 18.7% strikeout rate and 11.6% walk rate this year. And he's worked past the sixth inning only once, so we should see plenty of a Cardinals bullpen that has a league-worst 4.62 SIERA.
Our model forecasts this game as a 4.95-4.67 victory for the Cards. That's 9.62 total runs, and we give the over a 59.5% chance to win out. The public is on the over, too, as 59% of the bets and 62% of the money are on that side of the total.
