3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 6/23/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Rich Hill Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+104)
Rich Hill is just not over the hill yet. His 3.64 ERA and 1.05 WHIP are more than respectable as his 9.2 K/9 rate would suggest. Mind you, he is 41 years old.
The Tampa Bay Rays' pitcher may not have the greatest matchup tonight against the Boston Red Sox, but he is at home. He has been so close to six strikeouts lately with five in each of his last two outings.
Boston's 23.8% strikeout rate is right near the league average, and Hill carries a solid 25.6% strikeout rate.
Our model has Hill at 5.07 punchouts over just 4.86 innings. If he can squeeze out five-plus innings, he will get to those six strikeouts. Take the +104 and the over.
Austin Meadows to Hit a Home Run (+300)
It feels like this could be crazy, but Meadows could be due for an uptick in production. He is hitting just .226 this season yet still has 15 home runs in 261 at-bats. For those wondering, Austin Meadows has done this in 69 games. His last full season saw him hit 33 round-trippers in 138 contests.
While he is a touch off from his All-Star campaign of 2019, Meadows' home-run percentage at 5.0%, which is close to the 5.6% he averaged that season. It suggests the production is coming along with a few more hits. Also, like last year, he is swinging at 22% of the first pitches he sees -- higher than the 15.3% we saw in 2019.
At +300, Meadows at home is a better bet than most would expect on Wednesday night.
Trevor Bauer Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-108)
Trevor Bauer has a chance to put his strikeouts where his mouth is on Wednesday night. He has talked about how he can strike out 10 or more San Diego Padres even on the road. Let's see what he can do.
The last couple of starts have seen Bauer get eight strikeouts consecutive times. Bauer often goes on runs of three-to-five games of seven or more strikeouts. He is in the midst of one now, which is a good sign even against San Diego. Kind of like Yu Darvish, Bauer will give up his share of home runs (14 in 95 2/3 innings), but he will strike out batters in waves. Running out a San Diego slugger at plus money is not a bad idea tonight, too.
We project Bauer for a slate-high 7.98 strikeouts. The -108 price is enticing to make this our play. If it goes -110 or worse, look toward a Padres home-run prop perhaps.
