MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 6/29/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox
Over 8.5 (-105): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
We've got 15 games tonight, yet our model has assigned more than a one-star rating to just a single bet. This is it.
At first glance, a pitching matchup of Lucas Giolito and Kenta Maeda might have you expecting a low-scoring game. That's not how our algorithm sees it.
Giolito is having another quality season, with a 3.43 SIERA and 30.9% strikeout rate. He has, however, given up 1.75 dingers per nine, which is his worst clip since his brief 2016 campaign. He's also allowed multiple runs in four straight outings, while the Minnesota Twins' offense is starting to get going, posting a .351 wOBA (sixth-best) over the last seven days.
Maeda is having an uncharacteristically blah season. He comes into this one with a 4.15 SIERA and 21.7% strikeout rate -- both of which are career-worst clips. He's also been plagued by the long ball, permitting 1.90 per nine innings, which is another career-worst number. He should have a tough time versus a Chicago White Sox offense that is 11th in wOBA (.322) for the season.
Our model projects the White Sox to win 5.20-4.65 for a total of 9.85 runs. We have the over hitting 61.3% of the time and rate is as the night's top bet.
Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals
Arizona Moneyline (+136): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
As I said above, it's slim pickings everywhere else, as there are a lot of tight betting lines, per our projections. The Arizona Diamondbacks-St. Louis Cardinals clash is one spot where there's a sliver of value.
The Cards are -162 moneyline favorites, but they've got Carlos Martinez going. Martinez sports a 5.22 SIERA, 14.9% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate. He's been pretty dang bad, and he's allowed at least five runs in four of his past five starts.
That pushes me to the D-Backs.
While Arizona has the worst record in baseball, they'll have the pitching edge in this one as they're giving the ball to Caleb Smith. Smith has a 4.27 SIERA and 26.2% strikeout rate for the year, and in five starts since being moved back into the rotation, he owns a 24.8% strikeout rate and 4.40 SIERA. He's conceded more than two earned runs just once in that span. Smith is no surefire ace, but he's better than Martinez.
Arizona is +136 on the moneyline, implying win odds of 42.4%. We give them a 45.2% chance to prevail and mark the D-Backs to win outright as a one-star wager. That's not much, but it's something of note on a slate where there just isn't much betting value.
