MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 7/6/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks
Over 8.5 (-118): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Despite a 14-game slate tonight, the betting value is limited. Our model assigns a two-star recommendation to only a few bets, and there are no plays we mark with three or more stars.
The total in the Colorado Rockies-Arizona Diamondbacks matchup is one of the top bets on the board. We get a pitching clash between Jon Gray and Merrill Kelly, so we've got two meh pitchers going against two blah offenses. Our algorithm has the offenses winning out.
Oddly enough, Gray has been much worse away from Coors Field this year. In his travels, he's permitting a .369 wOBA while recording 17.1% strikeout rate. Those marks sit at a .259 wOBA and 22.5% strikeout rate at home. Overall for 2021, Gray owns a 4.55 SIERA and is allowing 1.09 dingers per nine.
Kelly has been better than Gray, sporting a 4.08 SIERA, but he's striking out just 21.4% of hitters and hasn't fixed his gopher-ball issues (1.28 homers per nine).
Our projections have Arizona winning a close one by a score of 4.84-4.81. That's 9.65 total runs, and we forecast the over to hit 59.7% of the time.
Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets
Brewers +1.5 (-102): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Brewers Moneyline (+240): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Yes, Jacob deGrom is starting for the New York Mets. And, yes, we're saying to bet on the Milwaukee Brewers.
DeGrom is insane, as you know. Dude has laughable numbers -- including a 1.70 SIERA, 41.3% strikeout rate and 3.7% walk rate. He's probably going to have success against the Brewers tonight just like he does every time out.
But there are some reasons to think Milwaukee can keep it close.
For one, the Brewers' offense has been much better lately, registering a .328 wOBA in June (11th-best) while hitting 39 homers for the month (9th-most). And deGrom has shown a little vulnerability in his last two starts, giving up a combined five earned runs across 13 innings despite 19 strikeouts in that span. Those are his only two starts all season in which he's allowed multiple earned runs.
On the other side of things, Brewers starter Brett Anderson's numbers leave a lot to be desired, but he gets a great matchup against a Mets offense that is 26th in wOBA over the last 30 days (.298) while striking out at the third-highest clip in that stretch (25.9%).
All in all, we have the Brewers putting up a good fight. We project the Mets to win 3.99-3.12, but we give Milwaukee a 55.8% chance to cover as 1.5-run 'dogs. We also have the Brewers to win outright as a two-star play. Their +240 moneyline price implies win odds of just 29.4%, but we have them with win odds of 38.5%.
