3 Under-the-Radar MLB FanDuel Plays for Friday 7/9/21
When being contrarian in daily fantasy sports, there's a fine line between taking a calculated risk and being reckless. But differentiating your lineups from everyone else's is the name of the game if you plan on taking down one of those highly lucrative DFS tournaments. Whether it's because of bookmaker totals, other options at a given position, or some gem you've found who everyone is overlooking, we can always find potential under-rostered plays if we look hard enough.
Here are three such players to consider branching out for on FanDuel's main slate.
Triston McKenzie, P, Cleveland Indians ($6,500)
Triston McKenzie has some serious firepower on the mound, but sometimes when you play with fire, you get burned.
That has been the story for McKenzie in his first two seasons in the MLB, sporting a 33.1% strikeout rate in 2020 and a 31.2% strikeout rate this season. The issues arise for him with a 20.6% walk rate this season and 1.70 HR/9 allowed, which are bad. However, that 31% strikeout rate is undeniably great and has allowed McKenzie to access a ceiling of fantasy points this season.
McKenzie has pushed past 30 FanDuel points four times this season, a level of production he can obtain tonight versus the Kansas City Royals, while providing plenty of salary relief on top of it. The Royals come in sporting a 88 wRC+ (23rd in the league), a .143 ISO (25th), and a 30.5% hard-contact rate (26th). If there is any matchup for McKenzie to get things going in the right direction, this could be it.
Buster Posey, 1B, San Francisco Giants ($2,800)
The San Francisco Giants have a 4.89 implied run total, which should cause them to go overlooked tonight.
It's not that a 4.89 implied run total is bad -- it's actually very good -- it's the fact there are eight teams ahead of the Giants tonight. Other teams have easier matchups, in better hitter's parks, or offer more value. Whatever the reason might be, the Giants shouldn't be popular tonight despite having a solid matchup versus Paolo Espino.
Espino has been up and down from the minors over the past few seasons, so we'll look at his career numbers. He has a 4.40 xFIP, a modest 23.3% strikeout rate, a 49.5% fly-ball rate, and is allowing 1.72 HR/9 to right-handed hitters. None of those stats inspire any sort of confidence in Espino, which is why I'll turn to Buster Posey tonight.
The veteran has reemerged this season with a 155 wRC+, .214 ISO, 14.0% walk rate, 37.3% hard-contact rate, and a 21.6% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed pitchers. Given the other options on the slate, the Giants shouldn't be a popular team tonight, making them great for tournaments.
Jonathan India, 2B, Cincinnati Reds ($3,500)
The Cincinnati Reds are undervalued on tonight's slate.
With a full 14-game slate, there are going to be plenty of teams or players going overlooked. You can't have exposure to every team or stack tonight, but you do want to differentiate away from the chalk sometimes. This is where the Reds come into play since they are up against Eric Lauer. Against right-handed hitters this season, Lauer allows 2.13 HR/9, a 39.0% fly-ball rate, a 38.0% hard-contact rate, and a 22.0% HR/FB ratio. Those are the near-exact numbers I like to target for a pitcher who is always in a spot to give up plenty of runs.
A Reds stack is something I have plenty of interest in tonight and the power hitters are obvious for them, but I actually want to start with Jonathan India. He gets on base (.423) a ton, only carries a 16.9% strikeout rate, a 12.7% walk rate, and a 136 wRC+ versus left-handed pitchers. He doesn't bring a ton of power himself but leading off for a team with this matchup is something you should want in your lineups.
