3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Friday 7/16/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Marcus Semien To Hit a Home Run (+330)
The Toronto Blue Jays are a team worth targeting tonight in betting or DFS.
The offensive power the Blue Jays bring on a nightly basis is evidently clear and that is exactly where you should look to start tonight. They are at home and set to take on Jordan Lyles, who allows 2.08 HR/9 to right-handed hitters, along with a 37.2% fly-ball rate and a 37.6% hard-contact rate. Lyles is a reverse splits pitcher, struggling more versus righty hitters compare to lefties.
This means we want power from the right side of the plate for the Blue Jays, and while there are plenty of great options, Marcus Semien has a good combination of the power we need as well as solid odds. Semien is carrying a .252 ISO, a 137 wRC+, a 45.7% fly-ball rate, and a 35.9% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. The power is clearly there for Semien and that should be on full display tonight.
Sean Murphy To Hit a Home Run (+400)
Another team with plenty of power upside tonight is the Oakland Athletics.
The Athletics are taking on Eli Morgan, who is a young pitcher with only 21.1 innings pitched at the major league level in his career. This is a very small sample size for a pitcher so take it with a grain of salt. That said, Morgan is allowing 4.26 HR/9, a 5.58 xFIP, a 55.8% fly-ball rate, and a 43.2% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters this season. Even in a small sample size, those are horrible numbers, so until something drastically changes for Morgan, I'll look to target him.
Sean Murphy brings the power we want to help cash the +400 on his home run prop. He comes in with a .224 ISO, a 44.7% fly-ball rate, and a 38.6% hard-contact rate. I'll take those numbers any day against a young pitcher who is struggling on the mound.
Chris Paddack Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-104)
The under on Chris Paddack's strikeout prop only has a little bit of juice and is worth considering tonight.
Paddack is carrying a modest 24.2% strikeout rate this season and hasn't shown a high strikeout ceiling too often. He has posted over 10 strikeouts one time in his 17 games and is getting chased from his starts early due to allowing too many runs more often than not. That's not a great combination with his matchup tonight against the Washington Nationals, who come in with a 22.8% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is 23rd in the league.
The Nationals simply do not strike out a ton this year and if the power in their lineup can get going early, it should lead to a short outing for Paddack and thus, the under on his strikeout prop.
