MLB

3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Monday 7/19/21

Thomas Vecchio  —  @Tom_Vecchio1 Jul 19th, 2021
Rafael Devers has an elite matchup for his home run prop tonight. Which other prop bets should you consider?

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.

Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Rafael Devers To Hit a Home Run (+260)

The Boston Red Sox are going to hit multiple home runs tonight and Rafael Devers should lead the way.

The Sox are on the road to take on the Toronto Blue Jays, who are still playing their home games in Buffalo. This is an important point to note since Buffalo's ballpark is currently the fourth-best hitter's park in the league. Devers will be going up against Ross Stripling, who is allowing 1.59 HR/9, a 46.4% fly-ball rate, and a 15.6% HR/FB ratio. Those are some bad numbers to be holding when you are pitching at a ballpark that is so friendly for home runs.

We look at Devers' power numbers and they are massive this season. He comes in with a .362 ISO, a 168 wRC+, a 40.6% fly-ball rate, and a 51.6% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. Those are some of the best numbers in the league, and with the power Devers has, the +260 odds make this a solid bet.

Tony Gonsolin Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+126)

Even though Tony Gonsolin has a small sample size this season, he is worth betting on tonight.

With only 25.1 innings pitched this season, Gonsolin doesn't have a ton to draw from. However, in this sample size, he has posted a 28.7% strikeout rate, which is the best of his career. By all means, take that with a grain of salt, but the plus money on his strikeout lines up nicely against the San Francisco Giants tonight. They come in with a 25.3% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the seventh-worst in the league.

While this isn't the safest bet on tonight's slate, Gonsolin has flashed strong strikeout upside, which he could maintain due to the free-swinging Giants on the other side tonight.

Bryan Reynolds To Hit a Home Run (+370)

Caleb Smith struggles against right-handed hitters this season.

I can say that for certain because I've tried to stream Smith in my season-long league one too many times this season and gotten burned by him. To prove that, he is allowing a 1.66 HR/9, a 5.12 xFIP, a 13.1% walk rate, and a staggering 52.2% fly-ball rate. Those are terrible numbers in the split and that just means you want to attack him with righty hitters tonight and every time he's on the mound.

While the Pittsburgh Pirates aren't known for having a ton of power hitters, Bryan Reynolds has been a consistent source of production for them. He comes in with a .240 ISO, a 160 wRC+, a 37.7% hard-contact rate, and a 19.0% HR/FB ratio versus left-handed pitchers this season. Given the struggles that Smith has against right-handed hitters this season, Reynolds is in a good spot to knock one out of the park tonight.