3 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for Tuesday 7/20/21
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-salaried slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-salaried NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-salaried play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's 13-game main slate.
German Marquez, SP, Colorado Rockies
FanDuel Salary: $8,600
This is what Colorado Rockies ace German Marquez has done over his last seven starts at Coors Field: 36 FanDuel points, 55, 43, 43, 34, 52, and 49. That'll play.
The last time I featured Marquez in this spot, he threw eight no-hit innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates. While it would be unfair to expect a repeat of that performance, we can still look to him as an excellent value proposition tonight.
In 70 2/3 innings at home this season, the 26-year-old right-hander has accrued a 6-1 record, with a 3.06 ERA, 3.09 FIP, and 24.2% strikeout rate -- and that's despite allowing eight earned runs in a start in which he couldn't even get through one inning against the San Francisco Giants in May. Not too shabby.
Tonight, Marquez will have the distinct pleasure of taking the mound against the Seattle Mariners. In 2021, Seattle's 90 wRC+ and 26.0% K rate ranks 11th-worst and 2nd-worst in the big leagues.
Chris Owings, 2B/OF, Colorado Rockies
FanDuel Salary: $2,500
Going against Marquez and the Rockies will be southpaw Marco Gonzales, and his profile is not exactly ideal for Coors Field.
Gonzales has struck out fewer than 20% of the batters he's faced this season, and when you combine that with a 5.88 ERA, 8.37 xERA, and 2.38 HR/9, that's a recipe to get pasted in Colorado.
Right-handed hitters have simply obliterated the 29-year-old this season to the tune of a .321 average, 1.087 OPS, .450 wOBA, and 2.92 dongs per nine frames. Yowza.
There are a couple of affordable righties in the Rockies' lineup tonight, but Chris Owings stands out as the best bang for your buck. Through 50 plate appearances this season, the 29-year-old has garnered a .326 average, 1.048 OPS, .433 wOBA, .302 ISO, and 159 wRC+. Sign me up.
Gregory Polanco, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
FanDuel Salary: $2,200
Toeing the rubber for the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight will be Taylor Widener, which is great news for the hitters of the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Though the rookie does have a 2.54 ERA this season, his career 5.66 FIP and 5.37 xFIP tell an entirely different story. The righty has been getting smashed by opposite-handed hitters so far in his young career, as indicated by 5.98 FIP and 5.32 xFIP in that split. Lefties have tagged him for a .830 OPS, .350 wOBA, and 2.21 homers per nine.
While he's far from a safe option, Gregory Polanco does have a .227 ISO against righties since the start of 2018, which puts him in a good spot to knock one out of the park tonight. And at a salary that just $200 above the minimum, that's all you can ask for.
