MLB Betting Guide: Friday 7/30/21

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.

For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets

Reds +1.5 (-166): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Reds Moneyline (+120): 2-Star Rating Out of 5

Our algorithm really likes the underdog Cincinnati Reds today. The Reds are sending Sonny Gray to the bump, and the host New York Mets will have Carlos Carrasco making his season debut.

Gray sports a 4.50 ERA, but he's pitching much better than that. His SIERA sits at 3.68, and his 28.8% strikeout rate and 11.1% swinging-strike rate are nice numbers. He can thrive in this matchup as the Mets are just 19th in wOBA (.308) with the 12th-highest strikeout rate (23.9%). Our model expects him to do just that, projecting the Mets for only 3.94 runs.

Carrasco is a really good pitcher who has had a stellar career, but he'll probably be on a short leash today. He logged just 6 2/3 total innings in the minors while he was rehabbing, and Carrasco didn't go past three innings in any rehab appearance. Plus, Mets' pitchers are running into a buzzsaw as the Reds' offense leads baseball in wOBA over the last seven days (.394).

We project the Reds to win 4.46-3.94 and give Cincy win odds of 53.2%. With the Reds at +120 on the moneyline, taking them to win outright is a two-star wager, per our model. Betting on them to cover as 1.5-run 'dogs is a three-star play.

New York Yankees at Miami Marlins

Marlins Moneyline (+144): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Marlins +1.5 (-118): 2-Star Rating Out of 5

This one is a tougher sell, because the New York Yankees got a lot better at the trade deadline while the Miami Marlins got worse. But there's some value on Miami here.

There's no doubt Anthony Rizzo and Joey Gallo fill the need the Yanks had for left-handed pop. But they're not going to fix everything for this offense, and Rizzo may not be ready to go tonight anyway. The Yanks have been underwhelming offensively all year, but they've been downright bad at the plate of late, sitting 20th in wOBA over the last 14 days (.314) with the 2nd-highest strikeout rate (26.5%) in that time.

And the Pinstripes have a tough task today versus Zach Thompson, who has put up a 3.80 SIERA and 26.7% strikeout rate over his first 33 MLB innings.

Miami's offense was already bad with Starling Marte, so they'll likely reallllly struggle without him. While Jameson Taillon is a fine pitcher, he's not overly intimidating, striking out just 18.0% of hitters in June and 20.2% in July. He's also permitting 1.52 dingers for the year.

The Marlins are +144 on the moneyline, but our algorithm has them winning 50.1% of the time in a game that we see as a coin flip. We also give them 62.0% odds of covering as 1.5-run underdogs. Both bets are two-star wagers.