MLB Betting Guide: Friday 8/6/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
Red Sox +1.5 (-162): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Red Sox Moneyline (+124): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Tonight is the opener in a key three-game series between the Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox. Our model likes the underdog Red Sox to get the win in this one.
Boston will have Nathan Eovaldi on the bump while Toronto gives the ball to Alek Manoah.
Eovaldi is having another really nice season, pitching to a 3.72 SIERA this year. Since the start of 2020, he's got a 3.64 SIERA, 24.3% strikeout rate and 4.1% walk rate. Those are excellent numbers. Obviously, he's got a tall task in front of him tonight as the Blue Jays' offense is pretty great, but Eovaldi shut them out over 6 2/3 innings in his lone appearance against Toronto in 2021.
Manoah has looked the part so far in his rookie campaign, holding a 3.67 SIERA and 29.2% strikeout rate through 47 1/3 innings. He's allowing 1.33 homers per nine, but that's really the only blemish on his profile. The Red Sox, however, will be his toughest test in a while as he hasn't faced a team in the top 14 in wOBA over his past five starts.
With Boston a 1.5-run underdog and +124 on the moneyline, the Red Sox offer good betting value, according to our numbers. Our projections give Boston a 51.2% chance to win and 68.7% chance to cover. Both bets are listed as two-star wagers.
Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians
Under 9.5 (-104): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
This game pits two meh offenses versus two improving hurlers, and we like the under to win out.
Cal Quantrill against Matt Manning is far from a headline pitching matchup, but both guys are putting up solid numbers of late.
Manning, a rookie, has permitted more than two runs in a start just once in his past five outings. His underlying metrics are bad (5.54 SIERA for the season), but Manning came into the year as the Detroit Tigers' top pitching prospect, per Fangraphs -- ahead of Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal. He's got talent. He's also got a tasty matchup versus a Cleveland Indians offense that is 24th in wOBA for both the season (.301) and the last 30 days (.304).
Quantrill is also getting good results recently, conceding just three total runs across his past four starts, a span that covers 23 innings. While his peripherals aren't quite as saucy, Quantrill can succeed in this matchup. The Tigers' offense has been better than nearly everyone anticipated, but they still check in only 18th in wOBA (.310) for the season with the 4th-highest strikeout rate (25.9%).
Our model forecasts a 4.36-4.06 win for Cleveland. That's 8.42 total runs, and we give the under a 61.8% chance to hit.
Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies
Marlins +1.5 (-137): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Marlins Moneyline (+140): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
We've got a pretty good pitching matchup tonight at Coors as Sandy Alcantara and German Marquez face off. It's Coors, so we're still expecting a good amount of runs -- 10.89 to be exact -- but there's value to be had on the Miami Marlins, who are 1.5-run 'dogs and sit at +140 on the moneyline.
Alcantara has been really good all season, boasting a 3.98 SIERA and 22.2% strikeout rate, the latter of which should probably be a tick or two higher given his 12.1% swinging-strike rate. Alcantara blitzed the New York Yankees for 10 punchouts over seven innings of two-hit ball in his last start, and while Coors is Coors, the Colorado Rockies were just 24th in wOBA in July (.311).
Marquez has found a way to have success at Coors this season, sporting a 3.54 xFIP in Denver, and overall he's got a 3.91 SIERA for the year. Miami has a league-worst .254 wOBA over the last seven days, so the matchup is clearly there. The one holdup with Marquez is that he's in a bit of a rut at the moment, allowing nine earned runs over his last three outings (18 1/3 innings). And his last home start came against a Seattle Mariners offense that isn't that much better than Miami's, and Marquez surrendered four earned runs in six innings in that one.
All in all, we have this game being a coin flip, projecting Miami to win 50.8% of the time. With the Marlins at -137 to cover as 1.5-run underdogs, taking Miami on the runline is a three-star bet. Picking Miami to win outright is a two-star wager.
